The German political scene is facing an unprecedented crisis after the ruling coalition between the conservative CDU/CSU bloc and the Social Democratic Party (SPD) lost support from voters.
The current government of Chancellor Friedrich Merz, formed after early elections in February 2025, has quickly dissipated public trust due to economic stagnation and controversial social reforms.
A dramatic collapse for traditional parties
According to the latest data from a national survey by the INSA sociological institute, if the Bundestag elections were held today, the ruling “broad coalition“ would have won barely 34% of the total votes. In detail, the conservatives from the CDU/CSU fell to the critical 22%, and their coalition partner the SPD collapsed to 12%. This result makes it absolutely impossible for the previous bloc to rule again, as it remains far from the necessary parliamentary majority.
The rise of the AfD and the course towards 2027.
Against this background, the opposition party, which is defined by the services as a right-wing extremist party, „Alternative for Germany“ (AfD) reaches all-time high of 29% support at the national level. The party, led by Alice Weidel and Tino Krupala, capitalizes on public dissatisfaction with strict migration policy, economic stagnation and pension reforms.
At its regular party congress in Erfurt, the AfD leadership demonstrated extraordinary self-confidence. Party representatives gave a clear sign that they are ready for an early vote for the Bundestag as early as 2027. AfD leaders even expressed hope for independent governance in the near future, despite the "cordon sanitaire" imposed on them and the refusal of the other political forces to form a coalition.
What it looks like the rest of the Bundestag?
- The Greens: They are recording a significant growth and strengthening their positions to 14% support.
- The Left Party (Die Linke): Marks a slight decline, but maintains a stable presence with 10% of the vote.
Political analysts point out that with such a fragmented parliament and a record low approval rating for Chancellor Merz, the pressure on the government to dissolve the Bundestag early will become increasingly unstoppable.
Sources: INSA, BTA, DW