The leaders of NATO member states fully understand and support Ukraine's campaign to launch intensified, long-range strikes deep into Russian territory. This was stated by Finnish President Alexander Stubb in an interview with the authoritative Financial Times, given on the eve of the Alliance summit in Ankara. According to him, the strategic goal of these attacks on Russian military and energy infrastructure is to exert maximum pressure on Moscow, which will force Vladimir Putin to return to the negotiating table.
A change in the West's strategy
“I think all NATO leaders understand why Ukraine is doing this. Everyone believes that we need to continue to increase the pressure,“ Stubb commented. His statement marks a major shift in the previous rhetoric of the allies, some of whom initially expressed serious concerns about a possible nuclear escalation by the Kremlin.
The Finnish head of state revealed that the massive Ukrainian drone campaign has changed the strategic thinking of Washington and other partners. Kiev's success in bringing the war to Russian territory has proven its effectiveness, paralyzing about 40% of the capacity of Russia's oil refineries and damaging key military facilities.
Kiev in its strongest position since the beginning of the conflict
According to Alexander Stubb's assessment, Ukraine is currently in “its best position militarily, politically and financially“ since the start of the full-scale invasion. Proof of this is the increased nervous and anxious activity inside Russia itself.
Stub highlighted several key factors for the new balance of power:
- Economic and psychological shock for Moscow: As the consequences of the war become personal for ordinary Russian citizens, public sentiment will begin to turn against Putin's regime.
- Battlefield dominance: Ukraine's growing capacity to produce and launch long-range weapons has dramatically tipped the balance in air operations.
- Strategic failure for Russia: Moscow has completely failed in its original objectives – instead of stopping NATO expansion and Ukraine's integration with Europe, it achieved the exact opposite, including the accession of Finland and Sweden to the Alliance.
Risks of escalation and China's “red lines“
Despite the optimistic assessment, the Finnish president acknowledged that the risks of escalation remain real. He revealed that during a recent meeting with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, the topic of a possible nuclear response from Russia was discussed in detail. According to him, Beijing has expressed an extremely firm position against the use of nuclear weapons, setting numerous “red lines“ for the Kremlin.
Stub also warned that European countries must remain realistic and be prepared for an increase in Russian hybrid attacks in the short term – including cyberattacks, sabotage and airspace violations, which are observed almost daily.