Risks to Romania's financial stability remain high in the context of domestic economic imbalances, geopolitical conflicts and uncertainty in the global economy. This is stated in a report by the National Bank of Romania, quoted by local media, BTA reported.
“The conflict in the Middle East and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz are already having an impact on energy prices, inflation and economic growth, and their possible intensification will further tighten financial conditions“, the document notes.
Domestically, Romania continues to maintain the largest levels of fiscal deficit and current account deficit in the European Union. The budget deficit for 2025 reached 7.9 percent of GDP, and the European Commission's forecasts for 2026 predict a contraction to 6.2 percent.
According to the cited source, the economic growth of our northern neighbor has slowed to just 0.7 percent in 2025 (compared to 0.9 percent a year earlier) due to fiscal measures and the reduced purchasing power of the population.
The absorption of European funds and the implementation of the National Recovery and Resilience Plan remain of key importance for investments, where, however, delays are reported in some components. So far, the country has received 10.72 billion euros (in the form of grants and loans), with about 10.7 billion euros still to be absorbed.
The situation is also worsening for companies. The share of bad loans in the corporate sector has increased to 5.5 percent as of March 2026 (an increase of 1.2 percentage points in one year). Small and medium-sized enterprises and the commercial real estate sector are most affected.
Romania continues to rank last in terms of financial intermediation, with the share of non-government credit to gross domestic product (GDP) at only 22 percent, compared to an EU average of 66 percent and below the levels in Poland, the Czech Republic, Bulgaria and Hungary.
The report cites the ageing population, the shortage of skilled labour and climate change as long-term structural challenges facing the economy. Romania leads the EU in terms of the number of young people neither in education nor in employment (19.2 percent).