The US and Ukraine are negotiating to stop air strikes, according to media reports. A Ukrainian military analyst believes that this would benefit Kiev, but it will be difficult to get Moscow to comply with the agreements.
A possible “air truce” between Ukraine and Russia would benefit Kiev above all, Ukrainian military expert Ivan Stupak said in a comment to UNIAN. According to media reports, Ukraine and the US are discussing the possibility of such a solution.
„Despite the fact that we are undoubtedly effectively hitting important targets in the Russian Federation, we are currently not able to turn the situation around with these attacks. We are not even close to a turning point“, the expert noted.
Stupak explained that last year Ukraine inflicted serious blows on the Russian oil infrastructure, and the attacks this year have led to a fuel shortage for the civilian population in certain regions. However, according to the expert, even this has not forced Moscow to change its position on the war against Ukraine.
The expert noted that Ukraine's infrastructure is overloaded to the limit. This applies not only to the energy sector, but also to business and logistics.
“All these attacks on warehouses, large retail chains and gas stations are part of the Russian strategy. Moscow believes that this winter will open a window of opportunity for them. The Russians are destroying our energy infrastructure, and the Ukrainians are switching to generators. But how will they power them if they are simultaneously attacking gas stations? This only exacerbates the shortage. Therefore, it would be beneficial for us to stop such attacks. "Ukraine has a significantly smaller territory than Russia and almost all of it is under fire," Stupak explained.
At the same time, the expert noted that even if Russia agreed to an air ceasefire, Ukraine would not have effective mechanisms to monitor compliance with the ceasefire.
“This is Russia - there is no way to control it. Even if we station the Americans somewhere on the border, what would they do? A missile will fly towards us and Russia will claim that this is a response to provocations by the “Kiev regime“. Russians are not gentlemen. This is not like during the First World War, when the Germans treated British prisoners with respect, and the British treated German prisoners with respect. That's why I wouldn't trust Russia's words at all," Stupak noted.
When asked how Ukraine should react to reports of a possible ceasefire in the air, the expert replied: "Although this is beneficial for us, we must prepare for provocations this winter. I am sure that Russia will not grant us this ceasefire until at least the end of February. This will be a form of revenge: for example, you destroyed our refineries this summer and ruined the image of the International Economic Forum in St. Petersburg, and now we will take revenge on you."