After the Islamist attack against the Berlin Pride, the main question is being discussed in Germany: how did the alleged perpetrator, known for his radical views and listed in the database of potentially dangerous individuals, manage to carry out an attack against the participants in the parade? Chancellor Friedrich Merz called for strict measures – including the deprivation of German citizenship for those extremists who also hold the citizenship of another country.
What is known about the attacker
On the evening of July 25, 21-year-old Abdul B., born in Germany with Lebanese roots, drove a car into participants in the "Christopher Street Day (CSD)” parade in support of the LGBTI community in the center of the capital. This was the first such attack against the procession, which traditionally brings together hundreds of thousands of people in Berlin. One woman died and many others were injured. Less than 24 hours later, police shot the alleged perpetrator in Berlin during his detention.
The attacker was well known to law enforcement agencies as an Islamist who had tried several times, unsuccessfully, to join the terrorist organization "Islamic State”. He was tried and registered in the police database of people who in Germany are unofficially called "Gefährder” - potentially dangerous individuals. In May 2026, Abdul B. was given a suspended sentence of 22 months in prison for "preparation of a serious violent crime that poses a danger to the state”. Before the sentence came into effect, the federal prosecutor's office appealed the court's decision, and Abdul B. was able to quickly leave the juvenile detention center, promising to undergo a "deradicalization” program. Some media outlets are calling this "farce”.
Why was a dangerous Islamist at large
There is still no answer to the question of whether the tragedy could have been avoided. Several possible explanations are most often mentioned. First of all, the alleged criminal was also released because he was tried under the juvenile criminal law, which is considerably more lenient in Germany. Berlin's Justice Minister, Felor Badenberg, has called for tightening the legislation for minors. Second, the surveillance of potentially dangerous individuals in the various federal states is carried out in different ways. There, the central government's capabilities are limited, which is also problematic.
The Berlin Office for the Protection of the Constitution estimates the number of Islamists in the capital at around 2,600 people, of whom around 980 are "violence-oriented", as the law enforcement agencies describe them. The police database contains several dozen "dangerous" individuals. The police say it is impossible to organize round-the-clock surveillance of all of them.
These and other aspects have already caused failures in the prevention of terrorist attacks in the past. The most famous case in recent German history was the attack on the Berlin Christmas market in December 2016. Then, 23-year-old Anis Amri, born in Tunisia, stole a truck and drove it into visitors. More than ten people died, and he himself was killed when he was arrested in Italy. It then became clear that Amri had changed his place of residence and names for years, and the exchange of information between the various federal states was, to put it mildly, insufficient.
How terrorist attacks affect elections
The terrorist attack in Berlin occurred just a few weeks before important elections in three federal states in eastern Germany. In September, state elections will be held in Saxony-Anhalt, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and the capital Berlin. In all three, according to polls, the "Alternative for Germany" is leading. In Saxony-Anhalt, it has the strongest position – just over 40 percent, which gives the party a real chance of winning an absolute majority for the first time. The question now is whether the AfD can win more votes in the wake of the terrorist attack in Berlin?
Politicians from the party, which traditionally advocates strict restrictions on immigration, have already criticized the authorities for alleged failures. In Berlin, AfD leader Christine Brinker accused the government of a "friendly approach" towards Islamists. In August 2024, a 26-year-old Syrian man killed three and wounded eight people at a festival in the western German city of Solingen. The "Islamic State" group claimed responsibility for the attack. The terrorist act immediately became one of the topics of the AfD election campaign in three eastern German states - Thuringia, Saxony and Brandenburg. In Thuringia, the party won the elections, but how much it "gained" from this terrorist act - is still unclear.
It is difficult to assess the impact of terrorist attacks on elections, since for this purpose it needs to be isolated from other factors. In 2025, the University of Frankfurt am Main published a study in which the authors analyzed the impact of terrorist attacks on the rise of right-wing populism in some regions of Germany in the period from 2010 to 2016. The important thing is that it deals with terrorist attacks in general, that is, carried out by both Islamists and right-wing extremists, mainly against foreigners (such were three quarters of the cases during this period). Moreover, the study analyzed the results only in those municipalities where terrorist attacks were carried out. The result is that where there were "successful” terrorist attacks, the AfD won about 6% more in the elections. The authors of the study explain this, among other things, with the mobilization of voters and the transfer of votes from other parties to the AfD.
But those were times when the party, founded in 2013, was still new and relatively moderate. In recent years, it has shifted significantly to the right, and in some provinces it is recognized as far-right.
Author: Roman Goncharenko