After the new escalation of the conflict in Iran, the Arab states of the Persian Gulf are turning not to Washington, but to China, in the hope that Beijing will use its economic influence over Iran to lift the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea. In this way, the Gulf states are seeing to what extent Beijing is able to put pressure on Tehran, BTA reported, citing "Reuters".
The pressure from the Gulf states for a greater role for China in the region is driven by growing frustration, regional representatives say.
The war that began with Israeli-American attacks on February 28 has dealt blows to their common regional enemy, but at the same time has limited their vital energy exports and put them more or less on the front line of the fighting.
As Iran and its allies threaten the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz, the Gulf states have turned to Beijing for help after realizing the limitations of American power in the war, three representatives of regional countries said.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has taken part in dozens of talks and meetings with their counterparts, seeking to broker a new truce, while Chinese special envoy Zhai Jun held talks in Gulf capitals and in Iran.
"China has maintained direct communication channels with all parties and is working unwaveringly to end hostilities and promote peace," the Chinese Foreign Ministry told Reuters.
China's position as a major buyer of Gulf oil and Iran's largest trading partner offers opportunities but also raises sensitive issues.
"There is great mutual respect between the Gulf states and China, and since China is a major trading partner, any issue is addressed in a very discreet manner," a Gulf state official said.
Iran has stressed that it will retain control of the Strait of Hormuz, citing attacks during talks on Iran's nuclear program as the reason for its decision. which the US and Israel have set out to destroy.
Ultimately, Gulf governments hope that Beijing will persuade Iran to strike a deal, the representative said, adding that China is moving slowly and cautiously to achieve this goal.
However, Arab states in the region are aware that a prolonged war could be in China’s interest, as it exerts constant pressure on the US.
China’s Middle East policy is constrained by the rivalry between the world’s superpowers
In the time since the 2022 Gulf-China summit, Beijing has developed close trade and investment relations with six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. These are Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.
A second such leaders’ forum is scheduled for this year in Riyadh, but has not yet been confirmed.
However, Beijing has refrained from condemning Tehran’s threats against shipping, which has fueled doubts about China’s willingness to protect the Gulf region and its exports.
"The Chinese are trying to be more active, they are trying to be more accommodating," another Gulf state official said.
"However, it turned out that China is not as influential as we thought. Whether this is due to a lack of political will or ability is debatable. "It seems that when America intervenes in a conflict, the considerations of the two countries' superpower status take precedence over everything else," the official added.
Henry Tujandhet, a China expert at the Washington Institute, told Reuters that Beijing's top priority is to preserve its relations with countries in the region rather than risk diplomatic consequences by openly siding with one of the two camps.
Once Washington intervened directly in the region, Beijing's strategy was no longer limited to the Persian Gulf, but also encompassed its broader relations and rivalry with the United States.
"Gulf governments can buy Chinese technology, secure investment and drones, but what they can't buy is Chinese influence that operates independently of Beijing's relations with Washington," said an official familiar with the talks with the Chinese government. country.
Chinese President Xi Jinping will visit the United States on September 24, where he will meet with his American counterpart Donald Trump.
China's Foreign Ministry said Xi had put forward a four-point proposal to safeguard and promote peace and stability in the Middle East. The Chinese president also offered support for countries in the region in their efforts to achieve economic development, security and cooperation.
China and other countries balance their interests
China is using its strong economic ties to expand its diplomatic influence in the Middle East, brokering a surprise diplomatic rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran in 2023 – an agreement that is now under serious test.
Beijing is pressuring Pakistan to continue to mediate in the resumption of peace talks between Washington and Tehran, three Pakistani officials told Reuters last week.
"China will continue to play an active role so that peace and stability can be restored to the Persian Gulf as soon as possible," the Chinese Foreign Ministry stressed.
China has also established direct contact with the Houthi rebel movement in Yemen to ensure that Chinese tankers can safely pass through the southern Red Sea after the pro-Iranian rebels threatened to block access to Saudi ports.
Anna Borszczewska, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute, said the limited bilateral arrangements that have protected the vessels, related to China are the only visible result of Beijing's diplomatic efforts so far.
"Beyond these developments, it is difficult to determine what China was able or willing to achieve," Borshchevskaya said, adding that the war allowed China to defend its interests while at the same time generating public discontent in the United States and Europe, fueled by a surge in energy prices.
China has benefited from a significant discount in the price of Iranian oil brought about by international sanctions against the Islamic Republic. In recent years, China has increased its support for the Iranian armed forces by supplying dual-use components, chip-making equipment and satellite navigation systems. At the same time, China has not provided overt military assistance to Iran since the war began.
According to analysts, Beijing's response to the war reflects its long-standing strategy of avoiding binding security commitments far from its core interests in East Asia.
Unlike the United States, whose alliances are based on mutual defense obligations, China prefers partnerships built on trade, investment and arms sales, with any closer military involvement remaining limited to its immediate geographical surroundings, analysts added.