A series of audacious Ukrainian drone attacks deep inside Russian territory risks unexpectedly shifting the balance of power in Vladimir Putin's favor.
As Kiev steps up its offensive against key Russian infrastructure, the international community is expressing growing concerns about an uncontrollable escalation. Analysts and diplomats warn that the current strategy could free the Kremlin for radical military measures.
Why could Kiev's attacks help Putin?
According to a large-scale analysis by the authoritative British publication The Times (source: thetimes.com), the massive Ukrainian strikes against energy targets and logistics centers (such as the Wildberries company depots) provide the Russian president with an ideal occasion for internal mobilization. Experts point out that bringing the clashes closer to Russian settlements allows propaganda to rally public opinion around the flag. This drastically reduces the risk of domestic political discontent in the event of a new wave of mobilization for the autumn campaign.
The economic blow against Russia and the price of success
Market analysts' data and reports Bloomberg (source: themoscowtimes.com) confirm that the Ukrainian campaign is causing deep economic damage. By August 2026, Russia's oil refining had fallen to a 24-year low (about 3.6 million barrels per day, a third below seasonal levels). Gasoline production had fallen by about 33%, forcing Moscow to impose a complete ban on fuel exports. Despite this success, however, critics emphasize that increased global commodity prices are partially offsetting the Kremlin's losses, while the political cost of escalation for Kiev itself remains critically high.
Analysts: Russian air defense breaches and risk of chaos
Military analysts from The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) indicates that Ukrainian forces have successfully eliminated a significant portion of radar coverage and air defense systems (S-300 and S-400) in the border regions of Russia (source: www.understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/ukraines-strike-campaigns-will-likely-continue-to-hurt-russias-economy-and-military-operations-in-ukraine/). However, experts are alarmed that the Kremlin is quickly adapting its tactics, redirecting new regional air defense units. The strategic risk lies in the fact that chaotic strikes and a sense of vulnerability in the rear give strong trump cards to the hardliners in Moscow, who insist on moving to an even more brutal phase of the war.
Kiev's position: Zelensky for the right to reply
Despite international pressure, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky firmly defends the legitimacy of the attacks. In an official statement quoted by Ukrinform (source: www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/ukraines-deep-strikes-are-just-retaliation-zelensky-reaffirms), the head of state emphasized that Ukraine has the full moral and military right to carry the war to the aggressor's territory. According to him, the strikes on refineries and military airfields are "just retaliation", which aims to deprive Russia of financial resources and logistical capabilities for terrorizing Ukrainian cities. Zelensky categorically rejected claims that these actions help Putin, defining them as the only way to force Moscow to negotiate peace.
Ankara reveals realistic nuclear weapons scenario
Amid the escalating conflict, Turkey's Foreign Ministry has issued an extremely alarming assessment of the situation. In a television interview, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said that Russia could use nuclear weapons as a "last resort" if the conflict escalates into a full-scale war of attrition on its own soil. (source: unn.ua/en/news/russia-may-use-nuclear-weapons-turkish-foreign-minister).
The diplomat stressed that when the threat becomes existential for Moscow and exhaustion grips the Russian rear, the likelihood of a tactical nuclear response becomes quite real. Fidan made an urgent appeal to the international community for immediate intervention and the introduction of a moratorium on attacks in the Black Sea, where strikes against merchant ships have become more frequent, threatening global logistics.
International reactions: Washington and NATO face a dilemma
The reaction of the Western allies is marked by serious concern. US intelligence reports cited by The Wall Street Journal (source: wsj.com), warn that cornered by strikes in the rear, Putin may undertake a limited military provocation against a NATO member on the eastern flank to test the Alliance's collective defense.
At the same time, according to publications by The Washington Post (source: washingtonpost.com), a fierce debate is underway in the White House whether to completely lift restrictions on Kiev's use of long-range weapons and satellite systems (such as Starlink) to strike Russia. Washington's main concern remains the critical shortage of air defense interceptors (such as Patriot missiles) on a global scale, which is causing allies to approach any action that could provoke a direct clash between NATO and Moscow with extreme caution.