Russia is shifting production of long-range weapons to systems that can more easily overcome Ukrainian air defenses, increasing the share of ballistic missiles and faster jet drones, Major General Vadim Skibitsky, deputy head of Ukrainian military intelligence, announced on August 10.
Moscow is expected to step up strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure in the winter of 2026/2027, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) summarized.
According to Skibitsky, Moscow has been increasing production of ballistic and cruise missiles since April, aiming to take advantage of the shortage of American Patriot interceptor missiles. Ballistic missile launches against Ukraine more than tripled between April and July. Russia has also used such missiles against Ukrainian defense industry plants to hinder the production of Ukrainian ballistic missiles.
Skibitsky said Moscow is halting production of the less accurate Kinzhal air-to-air ballistic missiles and Kh-32 cruise missiles to free up capacity for other systems. Among the systems used by Russia are S-400 launchers for launching specially designed PM-48U ballistic missiles on a ballistic trajectory for ground targets.
Ukrainian forces, meanwhile, continue to shoot down a large number of slower Russian piston-engine drones. That is why Russia is shifting its production to the Geran-4 and Geran-5 jet-powered models, whose speed makes them harder to intercept. Moscow plans to produce a total of 11,000 drones of the "Geran", "Harpy" and "Gerbera" models in August.
Skibitsky also said that Russia is storing "Caliber" missiles instead of using them and transferring them to fleets outside the Black Sea, because Ukraine has achieved a near 100% success rate in intercepting them.
According to the Ukrainian commander of drone operations, Robert Brody, Russia can simultaneously launch 77 missiles of various types and is seeking to increase the maximum salvo to 200.
In the winter of 2026/2027, Moscow is expected to intensify strikes against Ukrainian energy infrastructure. According to Ukrainian expert in the field of military radio technologies, Sergei Beskrestnov, the goal will be to further weaken the energy system. President Volodymyr Zelensky said that almost no power plants were undamaged, and the shortage of Patriot missiles remained a key problem.
On August 10, Ukrainian forces continued to strike Russian oil infrastructure and military facilities. Russia fired one Kh-59/69 missile, three Banderol cruise missiles, and 126 drones at Ukraine. Neither Russian nor Ukrainian forces made any territorial gains.