Russia is increasingly relying on ballistic missiles for its attacks on Ukraine. It is against these weapons that the Ukrainian army relies especially heavily on support from its allies. But the crucial US-made Patriot interceptor missiles have often been in short supply during the war.
How urgently does Ukraine need new Patriot missiles?
And the need for them is huge for Kiev. While Ukraine has built a well-functioning defense network against drones, the armed forces are reaching the limits of their capabilities in defending against Iskander-M ballistic missiles. The Patriot and PAC-3 interceptor missiles are among the few systems that can protect Ukraine from these attacks.
Kiev is managing to repel fewer and fewer ballistic missile attacks. President Volodymyr Zelensky explained that there are practically no missiles left for the eight Patriot batteries deployed in Ukraine.
As an alternative to the Patriot system, the Franco-Italian SAMP/T system can also be used. However, Ukraine has only a few of them, and the necessary interceptor missiles - the Aster-30 - are also in limited supply. In addition, the more powerful new generation SAMP/T NG will arrive in Ukraine gradually. Therefore, this system does not represent a short-term European solution to replace the "Patriot".
At the same time, supplies of "Patriot" are decreasing. According to Zelensky, this year Ukraine has received only about a third of the number of anti-aircraft missiles that were sent in 2025. The war in the Middle East has further exacerbated the global shortage. Unlike at the beginning of the war in Ukraine, today the problem is less a shortage of launchers than of ammunition for them.
What is Russia's capacity?
Although there is no accurate public data on Russian military capabilities, it is assumed that Russia is increasing its production. For example, Moscow has significantly increased the production of ballistic and aeroballistic missiles of the "Iskander-M" and "Kinzhal" types. Current estimates indicate that only the "Iskander-M" type is producing about 60 to 65 missiles per month, which means over 700 per year. According to reports, deliveries from North Korea are also added to this. According to Ukrainian data, since the end of 2023, Pyongyang has supplied Russia with about 150 ballistic missiles. In addition, the newly deployed North Korean missile unit in Russia could be equipped with up to 120 additional missiles.
The manufacturer of the "Patriot" missiles - the American plant of "Lockheed Martin" - has delivered only 620 interceptor missiles worldwide by 2025. The company plans to expand its capacity to 2,000 units, but this will happen within a seven-year program.
Did the US allow Ukraine to produce its own Patriot ammunition?
The specialized portal Army Recognition estimates that since the beginning of the war, Ukraine has been supplied with an average of only about 133 Patriot missiles per year. Given the intensity of Russian missile attacks, this is not much. That is why Kiev wants to secure another option: its own production.
After the NATO summit in Ankara in early July, the Ukrainian government initially presented the issue as largely resolved. President Zelensky said that Donald Trump had confirmed that he would grant Ukraine a license to produce Patriot missiles. After a meeting of state leaders in Washington, it was announced that they had discussed the "implementation" of this decision. Three days later, however, Trump caused confusion and said that the US had not approved such a decision and that caution should be exercised when transferring such technology. So the talks are now continuing. The option of producing the components in Ukraine, but assembling them in Germany, is also being discussed.
How quickly can Ukraine start producing its own missiles for the "Patriot"
There is also talk of Ukraine producing a cheaper version of the missiles itself. However, this cannot happen quickly enough to solve the pressing problems. According to the Ukrainian ambassador to Washington, Olha Stefanishyna, the time frame for this would be between one and five years. Until this is put into action, Ukraine is looking for ways to procure its missiles from elsewhere. For example, from other countries that buy them from "Lockheed Martin”, to transfer them to Ukraine and receive in return those delivered to Kiev at a later stage.
Ukraine is also trying to create a European-Ukrainian missile defense project. The program is being implemented under the name "Freya". At the heart of the system will be the FP7.X missile launcher from the Ukrainian manufacturer Fire Point. According to information from the head of Fire Point Irina Terek, its system is based on the Soviet S-300 and S-400 air defense models. However, today's missile has only about 20% in common with them. The company reports that more than 12 European defense companies are participating in the project at this stage. The goal is to produce an interceptor missile worth less than one million euros - cheaper than the "Patriot" missiles, which cost about 5 million US dollars.
However, this system will not be ready soon either. Ukraine hopes to have a prototype in early 2027, if all goes according to plan. "Ballistic missile defense is the pinnacle of air defense and its development is extremely complex", warns missile expert Fabian Hintz of the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Author: Andreas Knoll