North Korea apparently intends to send more soldiers to participate in Russia's offensive war against Ukraine. According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, this is about 50,000 fighters. At the end of June, there was still talk of 30,000, but the number was subsequently increased.
Former deputy director of South Korean secret services Han Ki-bum nevertheless warns to be careful with such claims. “Ukraine first talked about 30,000 people, then talked about 50,000, without providing any evidence.“
North Korea has enough soldiers
At the same time, Han admits that North Korea has enough military personnel for such a large mission without seriously weakening its defenses. “North Korean infantrymen can take care of the security of the Russian rear. Thus, more Russian soldiers could be sent to the front in Ukraine.“ The number of active soldiers of the North Korean People's Army is estimated at 1.3 million people, and 600,000 reservists are added to them.
Ukrainian military expert Alexander Kovalenko is of the opinion that the North Koreans are not currently participating in hostilities on the territory of sovereign Ukraine. He believes that Russia wanted something similar during the Kursk operation, but Pyongyang seems to have refused. Russian military expert Ruslan Leviev, who now lives and works in the United States, is also skeptical of this scenario. "It's one thing to defend conquered Russian territory, and quite another to be present on internationally recognized Ukrainian territory and wage an aggressive war there. From a diplomatic point of view, these are completely different things," he emphasized to DW.
Ahn Chan-il, head of the World Institute for North Korea Studies in Washington, believes that sending 50,000 fighters is quite realistic from a military point of view. Ahn's assumption is that Pyongyang will send "elite special forces."
"North Korea's special forces are particularly experienced in reconnaissance, surprise attacks and ambushes. They proved their combat skills on the Kursk front."
The role of North Korean missiles
Along with the soldiers, Russia was provided with North Korean ballistic missiles, which are believed to have been used in the attacks on Zaporozhye. According to South Korean and Ukrainian intelligence, Russia must have also received millions of artillery shells and ballistic missiles from Pyongyang.
In September 2024, Russia and North Korea signed a defense pact, under which North Korea must supply its Russian allies with combat units and ammunition - in exchange for payment and technology for Pyongyang's arms industry. According to Ahn, the North Korean soldiers will have valuable combat experience upon their return. “Some may become non-commissioned officers or instructors. Their knowledge will be useful to all military personnel.“
President Zelensky also warned of this scenario. Therefore, he asked South Korea to deepen its cooperation with Ukraine in the field of air defense and drones.
A turning point in the war cannot be expected
However, North Korea's more active participation in Russia's war against Ukraine is unlikely to lead to a turning point, experts told DW. American researcher Jenny Town, an expert on Korea, shares the opinion that the moment when North Korea's involvement could significantly affect Russia's ability to continue the war is already in the past.
Alexander Kovalenko also does not expect a breakthrough on the front by Russia, but looks with anxiety to the approaching winter. “October, November and December could be a serious test for Ukraine. And the possible general mobilization in Russia, as well as the release of resources through aid from North Korea, could have a negative impact.“
South Korea's concerns
“Military cooperation between Russia and North Korea is getting bigger”, Yoo Young-won, a member of the South Korean National Assembly, told DW. “I am concerned that this is apparently becoming a reality, regardless of whether such a large number of fighters will actually be sent.“ The sustained expansion of military cooperation between Pyongyang and Moscow requires more attention from the South Korean government and military, Yoo believes.
According to unconfirmed reports, 6,000 North Korean soldiers have been killed or wounded so far. However, North Korea is unlikely to announce the death toll. "If this number gets too high, it will be increasingly difficult to portray the war as a success," Ahn said. "Because tens of thousands of families will be grieving for these victims, and that will be a burden on the country's domestic politics."
Author: Dong Hu