Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva maintains his lead over Senator Flavio Bolsonaro ahead of the October presidential election, but the gap between the two continues to narrow.
A new Quaest survey published on August 14 shows that in a possible second round, Lula would receive 43% of the vote, while Flavio Bolsonaro would receive 40%. With a margin of error of two percentage points, the result means a practical technical tie between the two leading candidates.
In a first-round scenario, the current head of state remains in the lead with 38% support, while Flavio Bolsonaro receives 31%.
The survey was conducted through face-to-face interviews with 2,004 people between August 10 and 13. The data show a relatively stable picture compared to the previous Quaest survey from the beginning of the month.
Flavio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, has gradually managed to close the gap with Lula in recent months and is establishing himself as the main candidate of the right.
A CNT/MDA survey published on August 11 gave Lula 48% against 39.1% for Flavio Bolsonaro in the runoff. In June, the gap was larger - 49.3% against 36.8%.
An earlier Nexus/BTG survey also reported a narrowing of the gap between the two, and Datafolha in July gave 48% for Lula against 43% for Bolsonaro in the second round.
Thus, the different sociological agencies show a similar trend - Lula remains the frontrunner, but the presidential race is becoming increasingly competitive.
Quest data also shows a highly polarized assessment of the current administration. About 36% of respondents rate the government positively, 37% - negatively, and 25% describe it as average. The overall approval rating for the president's job is 46%, compared to 48% disapproval.
More than half of respondents - 53% - believe that Brazil is moving in the wrong direction.
Disapproval ratings are also high for both main candidates. Flavio Bolsonaro has a 54% negative rating, while Lula - 52%.
Polarization once again defines the campaign
The upcoming elections are increasingly shaping up as a continuation of the political confrontation between the left around Lula and the conservative camp associated with the Bolsonaro family.
In the first round, Lula still has a relatively comfortable lead, but in a direct runoff, the gap almost disappears.
This makes the last weeks before the official campaign particularly important - the economy, public security, attitudes towards institutions and the legacy of Jair Bolsonaro are likely to be among the main topics that will determine the behavior of undecided voters.
At the moment, all leading surveys point to the same thing: Lula remains in the lead, but the 2026 elections in Brazil are shaping up to be far more contested than they seemed just a few months ago.