For decades, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been pressuring the United States to attack Iran. Although he ultimately got what he wanted, six months later Israel seems to be in a more delicate position than before the war, analysts say, BTA reported, citing AFP.
Since the beginning of the war, the Islamic Republic, which Benjamin Netanyahu has long portrayed as an existential threat to Israel, has not been content to defend itself: it has retaliated by attacking US allies and blocking ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
In addition, the sharp reversals in the decisions of US President Donald Trump have destabilized Israel's position. Trump, who launched the offensive on February 28 with Israel, then called for a ceasefire in April after oil prices rose sharply and he faced public pressure.
"Israel's strategy on Iran has been a colossal failure," says Danny Citrinovich, a former Israeli intelligence officer and a research fellow at Tel Aviv University's Institute for National Security Studies.
"We have, of course, achieved operational successes, but we have failed strategically," Citrinovich points out.
On the first day of the war, the US-Israeli strikes killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who had long repressed any dissent in Iran and willingly supported Israel's enemies, such as the Hamas movement, which carried out the attacks on 7 October 2023
Ali Khamenei was also thought to have reservations about developing a large-scale nuclear weapons program - reservations that might disappear if the Islamic Republic judged it had lost its ability to deter conventional weapons.
Donald Trump has frequently ordered new strikes and then declared "economic war" against Iran. The American leader also made a statement in support of an agreement that would lead to the easing of sanctions.
According to Dani Citrinovich, Israel is now faced with the choice of accepting a new nuclear agreement that would strengthen Tehran, considering that the Jewish state was categorically against the 2015 agreement negotiated by Barack Obama, or trying to weaken Iran by taking the risk of Tehran accelerating its pace towards nuclear weapons.
"Israel is trying to do both, but it won't work," says the researcher.
Damage or regime overthrow?
For 92% of Israelis, Iran won the conflict or received more benefits than Israel. According to this study, conducted in June by the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and the Agam Institute, it sounds like a warning to the government before the parliamentary elections on October 27.
Some observers emphasize, however, that Netanyahu has never explicitly set the goal of regime change in Iran.
Instead, some believe that Benjamin Netanyahu is sticking to a scenario that has already been observed in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria: inflicting significant damage that will allow Israel to attack later as it pleases - a strategy euphemistically called "mowing the lawn".
"Netanyahu does not see this as a defeat. "He got a direct war between the US and Iran, with Israel on the front line," a foreign diplomat based in Israel, who asked to remain anonymous, told AFP.
Although Iranian retaliatory strikes killed 25 people in Israel and four in the occupied West Bank, Tehran then focused its attacks on Gulf states where US military bases are located.
According to Alex Greenberg, an Iran expert at the US-based Turan think tank, the war has significantly weakened Iran, destroying infrastructure and killing members of its nuclear program. In addition, significant economic damage has been caused.
"I think Israel has achieved its strategic goal, which is to deprive the Iranian regime of its ability to threaten Israel," says the researcher, who does not believe that Tehran can negotiate a favorable deal with Washington.
Risk of lasting hostility
In the United States, the war has unleashed a wave of criticism against Israel, even in the president's camp.
Although it is difficult to conduct research in Iran, the country was undoubtedly a close ally of Israel under the Shah, who was overthrown by the Islamic Revolution in 1979.
The anti-government demonstrations in January revealed, among other things, the strong opposition of the Iranian population to the support that the authorities provide to armed groups in the Arab world.
In April, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz and Donald Trump threatened to return Iran to the "Stone Age" by bombing universities.
Therefore, there is "a real risk of lasting hostility towards Israel and the United States, especially if this war is remembered for the civilian casualties and the damage done to the country, rather than just the elimination of senior regime figures," said Liora Hendelman-Baavur, a fellow at the Central Alliance for Iranian Studies at Tel Aviv University.
"This hostility will not necessarily restore the legitimacy of the Islamic Republic, but it could complicate future relations even after the current leadership changes," she said.