US President Donald Trump's attempts to reopen the diplomatic channel to North Korean leader Kim Jong-un are starting to cause concern among traditional US allies in Asia, Reuters notes. The reason is not the idea of dialogue with Pyongyang itself, but the way in which Washington is trying to achieve it - by limiting joint military exercises with South Korea and publicly emphasizing the personal relationship between Trump and Kim. Against this backdrop, Japan, South Korea and other US partners are questioning whether US commitments to regional security remain a long-term strategic policy or can be changed according to the president's current diplomatic and political priorities.
One of the latest reasons for the increase in concerns was Trump's decision earlier this month to order the Pentagon to "significantly" reduce the scale of joint military exercises with South Korea, Reuters reports. The president justified his decision by citing the high cost of the exercises, Seoul's reluctance to actively participate in US military actions against Iran and the argument that the US has a "very good relationship" with Kim Jong-un. It is the latter argument that has raised the most serious questions, as the exercises are a key element in the preparation of US and South Korean forces to repel a possible North Korean attack.
Joint exercises traditionally have not only military but also political significance, commented the South Korean think tank Global East Asia Institute. They guarantee the ability of the two armies to act together in the event of a conflict and are part of the system for deterring North Korea. According to an analysis by the Seoul-based think tank, the decision also has a broader political significance in addition to its immediate military effect, because it sets a precedent for the readiness of allies to be used by Washington as a tool in negotiations.
For South Korea, the current geopolitical situation is particularly complex, writes the "Guardian". President Lee Jae-myung has long insisted on reducing tensions with Pyongyang and resuming dialogue, which is why at first glance it might seem that Trump's decision coincides with some of his goals. At the same time, however, Seoul does not want any possible reduction in the US military presence to be perceived as a weakening of the US commitment to South Korea. After the announcement of the US move, Lee Jae-myung even renewed his calls for greater independence of South Korean defense.
This is one of the major dilemmas facing Seoul, the newspaper points out. For years, South Korea has relied on the US nuclear umbrella and the presence of tens of thousands of US military personnel as a major factor in deterring North Korea. At the same time, public support in the country for the idea of acquiring nuclear weapons itself is high, and analysts warn that actions that create the impression of weakening the US commitment could strengthen these sentiments. This is precisely one of the paradoxes of Trump's policy – his attempts to reduce American spending and commitments could ultimately encourage US allies to seek their own means of deterrence.
The other source of concern is Pyongyang's own reaction, the think tank "38 North" said in an analysis. Despite Trump's demonstrated confidence that his personal relationship with Kim could help resume dialogue, North Korea has so far given no clear sign that it is ready to return to negotiations. The sister of the North Korean leader, Kim Yo-jong, said that the curtailment of US-South Korean exercises does not change Pyongyang's assessment of them. At the same time, she left open the possibility of future talks with Washington if the US undertakes much more substantial changes in its policy.
It is also significant that just days after Trump's decision was announced, North Korea launched about ten short-range ballistic missiles, the think tank noted. This demonstrates that Pyongyang does not consider the American move to be a significant enough concession. North Korea's reaction represents a kind of "two-pronged strategy" - on the one hand, Pyongyang does not completely close the door to a future meeting with Trump, but on the other, it continues to demonstrate military power and demand a high price for a possible resumption of diplomacy.
The concerns are most visible in Japan, Reuters commented. For Tokyo, any weakening of the US military deterrence on the Korean Peninsula has a direct impact on its own security, since Japan is also within range of North Korean ballistic missiles. Former Japanese Defense Minister Itsunori Onodera described as "extremely worrying" the possibility that Trump's policy could encourage North Korea's ambitions. The concern in Tokyo is also heightened by the fact that Japan is currently engaged in difficult negotiations with Washington over the cost of maintaining US forces in the country.
Here arises the larger question of the reliability of the US as an ally, Reuters noted. If Washington is willing to change its military behavior towards South Korea because of Trump's desire to improve relations with Kim, Tokyo may wonder whether a similar approach will not be applied to Japan in the future. Japanese officials are closely monitoring upcoming talks on the US military presence in the country and the possibility that Trump will demand a sharp increase in Japan's financial contribution. The combination of these negotiations with attempts to reach out to Pyongyang creates a sense that the alliance is increasingly viewed through the prism of immediate benefits for Washington.
However, the consequences of Trump's policy towards Kim are not limited to Seoul and Tokyo, Reuters points out. Taiwan is also closely watching the US president's actions, as the island depends heavily on US military support and Washington's ability to deter China. Taiwanese officials are concerned that the Trump administration is delaying approval of a package of arms sales worth about $14 billion at a time when the president is seeking to stabilize relations with Chinese leader Xi Jinping. For US allies in Asia, this raises the question of whether Washington would put its own bilateral deals ahead of its partners' interests in the event of a crisis.
That is why the US administration's actions towards Kim are being viewed by a number of Asian countries in a broader context, Reuters commented. Japan, South Korea and Taiwan are not reacting simply to a decision on military exercises, but to a pattern of behavior in which Trump appears to put his personal relationships with foreign leaders, US military spending and specific political concessions at the center of relations with partners. If the US fails to convince its allies that they are not just a bargaining chip in the US president's personal diplomacy, the consequences could be extremely serious - from accelerating the rearmament of Japan and South Korea to weakening confidence in American leadership in Asia, the agency concluded.