Russia is stepping up its actions against Europe, with the likely goal being to hinder Western aid to Ukraine and test NATO's resolve. This is assessed by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), which examines Russian actions, drone incidents and changes in Moscow's military structure in one context.
In parallel, it remains unclear to what extent Ukraine can use Starlink and Starshield satellite technologies to intercept Russian jet drones. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that access to Starlink for this purpose is limited to a speed of 161 kilometers per hour.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on October 17 that Ukraine does not have access to Starshield – a more secure and jamming-resistant version of the network designed for government and military needs. “The possibility of Kiev gaining such access is under discussion, Rubio said.
Strike on infrastructure in St. Petersburg
On the night of October 18, Ukrainian forces carried out their largest strike since 2022 on digital, energy and logistics infrastructure in St. Petersburg and the Leningrad region, according to an assessment by ISW.
The Russian Defense Ministry claims that 1,015 Ukrainian drones have been shot down over Russia, Crimea and the Black Sea. Leningrad Region Governor Alexander Drozdenko said 145 of them were destroyed over the region.
Geo-tracked footage shows damage to a data center of the Russian social network “VKontakte“, located near St. Petersburg, about 854 kilometers from the international border. The company's press service confirmed the strikes, but said services remained available. Russian opposition publication “Medusa“ reported complaints of serious disruptions to the platform.
A warehouse of the online platform Ozon, about 844 kilometers from the international border, was also hit. The company confirmed the strike and the subsequent large-scale fire. According to geolocated footage, Ukrainian forces also struck a cable-stayed bridge on the "Western High-Speed Diameter" highway, which connects the northern and southern parts of St. Petersburg.
Incidents in Romania and Lithuania
On October 17, the Romanian Air Force shot down two unidentified drones over the Black Sea - 20 and 25 kilometers from Sulina. Acting Defense Minister Radu Miruca said that they could be Russian "Geran-4" drones, since they were flying at a speed of about 450 kilometers per hour.
In Lithuania, on the night of October 18, unidentified individuals attempted to set fire to a facility belonging to a company storing Starlink communications equipment. Prime Minister Mindaugas Sinkevičius described the incident as part of Russia's actions against Europe and compared it to similar incidents in Poland and Bulgaria.
ISW links these events to a broader Russian campaign, which the institute says aims to hinder military aid to Ukraine and increase pressure on European countries.
Russia is restructuring its military units
The report also notes the ongoing reorganization of the Russian armed forces, which began with reforms announced by former Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu in December 2022. Since then, 12 Russian brigades have been converted into maneuver divisions.
However, it is unclear whether Russia will be able to provide the necessary personnel for the new formations to reach the numbers envisaged in the military doctrine.
Sources: news.bg