After two days of diplomacy - in the Norwegian capital and the Russian city of St. Petersburg - is the war in Ukraine any closer to an end? According to the BBC, the prospects for peace are not positive.
“Good and constructive“ is how the Norwegian prime minister described Tuesday's talks between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, US President Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff and European representatives.
The idea of a trilateral summit at the leadership level was proposed in Oslo. The hope was that Steve Witkoff's trip to Russia would pave the way for a meeting between President Vladimir Putin, Zelensky and Trump to agree on a ceasefire. But Putin has shown little desire to share a table with Zelensky — unless that table is in Moscow.
The Kremlin has said it may be willing to resume the trilateral talks next month in Abu Dhabi, but only on a technical level. In an article in X, Steve Witkoff himself acknowledged that “there is still important work to be done,” although he said that “President Trump remains committed to seeing this war through to an end…”
For me, the most telling statement of the day came from Vladimir Putin’s foreign policy aide, Yuri Ushakov. He was at the talks in St. Petersburg, writes author Steve Rosenberg.
Ushakov said that Steve Witkoff had briefed President Putin on the Oslo discussions and (according to Witkoff) “new approaches from the Europeans and Kiev.” The Kremlin adviser was clearly unimpressed by what he heard.
“As for resolving the Ukrainian crisis, there wasn't much that was useful,“ Ushakov said. Later, Russian state television asked him about the prospects for peace. “I don't know how close we are to the goal,“ said Yuri Ushakov, “but things are moving in that direction.“ It's all rather unclear.
President Putin doesn't seem to feel any pressure to end the war right now.
He knows that Ukraine's air defenses are under serious strain. He knows that winter is coming, and he may well see the cold weather as an opportunity to subdue Ukraine. He also knows that there is an American president in the White House who clearly wants a broader, better and more profitable relationship with Moscow.
A Putin-Zelensky-Trump trilateral meeting may not be imminent.
But next month in China, it is entirely possible that a meeting between Vladimir Putin, Donald Trump and Xi Jinping will take place on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit. Some commentators here are already calling it the “New Yalta” - a reference to the 1945 Yalta Conference, where Stalin, Churchill and Roosevelt met to plan the political and territorial reorganization of post-war Europe.
“Russia, China and the United States are the only superpowers in the world right now“, says Evgeny Popov. “Of course, it would be good for the whole world if our leaders met in China.“ After nearly five years of war, it would put Vladimir Putin exactly where he wants to be - at the forefront of world politics.