Around 50,391 people died in Europe from extreme heat in June, July and August 2026, according to a new analysis of mortality rates in 854 European cities, published in the journal Nature Health. The findings were reported by the Associated Press and are the basis for a report in POLITICO.
The researchers estimate that 32,619 of the deaths were linked to additional warming caused by human activity. That's nearly two-thirds of the total estimated for the summer months. The data is not an official register of people who died with the direct cause of death listed as “heatstroke“, but is the result of modeling the relationship between temperatures and mortality.
The analysis covers different age groups and uses temperature and demographic data for cities. The included settlements represent about 40% of the population of Europe. The authors emphasize that the estimate is likely lower than the real number of victims, as it does not include the heat wave in May and does not cover the entire population of the continent.
Heat often worsens other diseases
High temperatures strain the cardiovascular and respiratory systems and can accelerate the onset of death in people with pre-existing diseases. Therefore, some victims do not die directly from overheating, but from heart attacks, strokes, kidney failure or other complications provoked or worsened by the hot weather.
“Much of western and northern Europe does not have the infrastructure to cope with the temperatures we are now seeing due to human-caused warming“, says Claire Barnes, a climatologist at Imperial College London and lead author of the analysis.
In the summer of 2026, Europe was hit by a series of heat waves, with temperatures exceeding 40 degrees Celsius in a number of areas. Preliminary estimates published earlier in the season had suggested more than 30,000 additional deaths, but the latest analysis raises the estimate for the entire summer period to more than 50,000.
Estimate subject to change
The authors point out that the numbers are subject to revision as final national mortality data becomes available. They also caution that the results cannot be automatically extrapolated to the whole of Europe, as the study was limited to 854 cities.
The analysis suggests that human influence on climate is not the only factor in mortality. The age of the population, access to cooling, the quality of buildings and the preparedness of health systems also determine how severe the consequences of heatwaves are. European health experts insist that protective measures should be planned before extreme temperatures occur, not just in response to a heatwave that has already begun.
Sources: apnews.com, theguardian.com