The loss of the Republican majority in the House of Representatives and the Senate following the U.S. midterm elections could complicate Turkey’s plans to rejoin the F-35 fighter jet program, lift CAATSA sanctions and secure American engines for the Turkish KAAN combat aircraft. This warning comes from Turkish analyst Sinan Ülgen, director of the Istanbul-based Center for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies (EDAM), quoted by the Turkish edition of “Deutsche Welle.”
According to Ülgen, the shift in the political balance in Washington will make relations with the U.S. Congress even more important for Ankara. The previous approach, based to a significant extent on the personal relationship between President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and U.S. President Donald Trump, will not be sufficient to overcome the obstacles to bilateral defense cooperation.
“The shift in the political balance in Washington will make relations with the U.S. Congress even more important for Ankara, as Turkey’s previous approach, based to a significant extent on the personal relationship between President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and U.S. President Donald Trump, will not be sufficient to overcome the existing obstacles to bilateral cooperation in the defense sector,” Sinan Ülgen said.Congress Remains Key to F-35 and CAATSA
Any new Turkish request to acquire F-35s will be subject to review by the U.S. Congress. The change in its composition could also complicate Ankara’s efforts to lift the CAATSA sanctions imposed in 2019 over the purchase of Russian S-400 air defense systems.
Ülgen believes that the election result could also have a negative impact on securing American engines for Turkey’s fifth-generation KAAN fighter jet. He stresses that the issue will not be resolved through contacts with the White House alone, but will require work with U.S. lawmakers.
“Turkey will have to expand its diplomatic contacts in Washington and seek support among both Republicans and Democrats,” the analyst said. In his view, the positions of the chairmen and members of the foreign affairs committees in both chambers, which have a bearing on decisions regarding arms sales and the sanctions regime, will be particularly important.
Democrats Likely to Focus on Rights
According to Ülgen, Democrats are likely to pay greater attention to the state of democracy, the rule of law and human rights in Turkey. These issues could occupy a larger place in the work of Congress and influence the political context of U.S.-Turkish relations.
The analyst does not describe the change in Washington as a definitive blockade of Turkey’s defense projects. In his view, it will require Ankara to pursue a broader diplomatic strategy and engage more actively with U.S. lawmakers.
Former Turkish diplomat Selim Kuneralp offered a similar assessment in a post on “X.”
“Trump has lost control of Congress. The government will have to abandon any remaining hopes of arms sales through Congress, especially with regard to the F-35. I fear that KAAN has also taken a hit. The “Trump” card can no longer be used,” Kuneralp wrote.
Sources: bta.bg, ekathimerini.com