At a time when the presidential institution is on the verge of an unprecedented transformation, and Rumen Radev openly declares ambitions for direct participation in active politics, the questions surrounding the motives, risks and consequences are becoming increasingly acute. The departure of “Dondukov“ 2 and the possible creation of a party project shake established political balances and open a new front of tension in the already fragmented party system. Where are BSP, MECH, “Velichye“, “Vazrazhdane“… Political scientist Prof. Milena Stefanova spoke to FACTI.
- Prof. Stefanova, what does the political “descending” of President Rumen Radev on the field mean – something that has never happened in Bulgaria on this scale before?
- Radev's decision to leave the presidency is a betrayal of the people who elected him and provided him with the comfort of being head of state. It is also an abdication of the duties he swore to in the Constitution! Whether and how he will run in the elections for a representative of the people remains to be seen.
- Is the presidential institution becoming a springboard for a party project and where does the line between head of state and political leader extend?
- Radev is using the presidency for his own purposes. He was nominated by the Bulgarian Socialist Party, and in both presidential elections he ran through an initiative committee. Morality suggests that if he is going to venture into the tainted party terrain, it should be done through the BSP, but we are unlikely to witness such an act.
Georgi Parvanov created his own party after the end of his second term. Petar Stoyanov returned to the UDF, was briefly a member of parliament and leader of the party, and Rosen Plevneliev has the most adequate position after being president. As they say - “once a president, president for life“!
What Radev is doing is not aimed at protecting the public interest.
He, many people have probably done what was necessary to accuse him of, experiences himself as a hero, as a messiah, but neither of the two roles can be consolidated by actions on his part as president.
Radev now has to face the reality of the Bulgarian party system. He constantly criticized the parties, but now his party, if he even has one, will also be criticized. While he was sitting comfortably in the presidency, he used to gossip about parties, then call them insulting words. In fact, I really want to know who the people were who secretly whispered to him from the public and probably gave him the courage to resign. Let's not forget that the former State Security was also strongly represented in his initiative committees, mostly left-wing and pro-Russian pseudo-intellectuals. In fact, according to estimates by other researchers, Radev owes his election for the first term to the late Stefan Danailov, a universal favorite of Bulgarian citizens, to Kornelia Ninova and the BSP. Not without importance was the weak candidacy of GERB's main opponent at the time, Tsetska Tsacheva.
It is very difficult to imagine Radev as a party leader.
His high rating as president is not enough. It will melt away the moment people go to vote in the elections. Part of this rating, the majority, is actually not personal, but institutional. The large number of voters who supported him in the presidential elections will not automatically be confirmed in the choice of his project for participation in parliament. Radev also has no charisma to rely on. Personally, in my opinion, Radev has no party experience. Someone else will do things instead of him and it is important to know who he is.
- What are the people's expectations of Rumen Radev and is he meeting them at the moment? Does he fill them with content, because there is hope, but then… - Which people? There are different points of view. We will see from the first sociological surveys that will be conducted after he announces whether he will participate in the upcoming parliamentary elections and how this will happen. Radev has not told us anything concrete yet. His farewell address was populist and full of claims, but without evidence. Like all his statements during his 9 years as president. He will continue to divide, as he has done so far. But as a party leader, he can be forgiven for this. As president, he had no reason to do so.
- How will the arrangement of parties in parliament change after Radev officially enters active politics?
- There will undoubtedly be shifts. We will await with interest the results of the first surveys of our sociologist colleagues, and then we will watch the campaign with interest. Radev cannot afford the luxury of personally standing on the sidelines and letting his people into the field. He will have to participate in debates, state a position on important topics for Bulgaria. So far, he has always been insufficiently clear. Let's take an example from his farewell address. At first, he considered the completion of Bulgaria's European integration with the adoption of the euro a success, and a little later he again rubbed the faces of the parties in parliament for not allowing his referendum.
Nothing that the referendum is unconstitutional, but Radev should still say so.
It is very possible that the next parliament will be composed of a smaller number of parties and coalitions. Somewhere around 5. Theoretically, this means that it should be easier to form a majority to form a government. But if this is a project of Radev, GERB, DPS-NN, PP-DB and “Vazrazhdane“... I don't know, I don't know.
- Radev and 121 votes in parliament – this is a goal, but is it possible…
- If you say that the goal is for Radev to have a majority - no, this is not possible. No formation can achieve such a majority. The last time this happened was in 1997 after Jean Viden's criminal rule. Then the UDF swept away, as they say, everyone. But then we were hungry, inflation was more than galloping. Banks went bankrupt and the citizens rose up. After that, neither the NMSV, despite the charisma of Simeon Saxe-Coburg-Gotha, nor GERB, with the continuously imposed leadership position of General Boyko Borisov, achieved such majorities. They were on the border. Bulgaria is a parliamentary republic, and a proportional electoral system with a 4% threshold for participation in the distribution of mandates in the National Assembly is applied to elect representatives to power. This implies that single-party majorities cannot be easily formed. Politicians must finally understand that governance will be through coalitions.
- Which parties will lose the most from the emergence of a political project related to Rumen Radev?
- Most likely there will be losses, but how much and who will lose is too early to say. This will depend a lot on Radev's orientation, positioning and the campaign. From the reactions of the political parties, I see that the smaller ones feel vulnerable - and rightly so. Much will also depend on voter turnout. In any case, the big parties will survive - I mean GERB, DPS-NN and “Vazrazhdane“. What weight their representation in the National Assembly will have, however, we cannot predict as of today.
The reaction of the PP-DB coalition was interesting. Initially timid, evasive, but the very next day they began to fiercely criticize Radev.
They distance themselves from him, because otherwise he will swallow them up, or at least they would suffer significant damage. Their priorities for the fight against corruption, for law and order and democracy were the main pillars of Radev's address. At first glance, this would guarantee a partnership, but Radev must have someone to partner with.
If they are competing for the same electorate, the probability that citizens will prefer Radev to PP-DB is high.
Because they would expect the general's strong hand to achieve what the elite of the center of Sofia and several large cities in the country have failed to achieve in these 5 years.
- How does Radev's possible project affect parties such as MECH and “Vazrazhdane“, which are already reaching out to him?
- MECH and “Velichy“ immediately recognized him as their partner. “Vazrazhdane“ had a different reaction. MECH and “Velichy“ It is very likely that they will not gather the votes they need to enter parliament. "Vazrazhdane" however, distances itself from Radev, accuses him of political plagiarism and defends the thesis that they are the only ones with a firm position on the independence of Bulgaria. It is likely that "Vazrazhdane" will also suffer damage.
- What is the situation of the BSP in the light of these processes and is there a risk that it will be further marginalized?
- Some researchers predict the disappearance of the BSP from the parliamentary scene. The BSP allowed itself to disperse into numerous left-wing formations and formations, and now it is reaping the fruits. The same thing happened on the right, of course. GERB ate and adorned itself with the label of the UDF as a coalition partner. Now Radev is quite possible to do something similar with the left.
- Radev started with the support of the BSP, but now he is expected to “steal votes“ from the BSP…
- Well, this is also part of Radev's morality. Stealing from your mother, I say mother, not because when Radev was nominated as a presidential candidate 9 years ago, Kornelia Ninova was the leader of the BSP, but because the party is female.
- Given that elections may be held in two months, will Radev create his own party or will he use the so-called “launcher rocket“, using another party?
- There is no time to complete the procedure for creating a new party. From the way he will register to participate in the elections
it will become clear whether while he was in the cozy presidency, he did not actually violate the Constitution and did not engage in party building.
It is likely that the registration of existing parties will be used to form a coalition, the name of which will be Radev's project. The same thing was done at the time by the NMSV – National Movement Simeon II, as a coalition under this name, was registered by the Party of Bulgarian Women and the Movement for National Revival “Oborishte“.
- How do you see the role of Iliyana Yotova as a president who will form a working cabinet?
- Iliyana Yotova has extensive experience in politics, but she is unlikely to have her own opinion and will only make choices and decisions on her own will - she will make choices and decisions. There is no way to convince me that she has not discussed or will not continue to discuss these things with Radev. However, she can successfully delay the procedure and thus move the date of the elections away. And this directly serves Radev. Yotova's motives will be related to the need to consult first with the parliamentary parties and coalitions, and then with each of these ten people who are on the list of potential prime ministers. Much also depends on which secretaries and advisors from the presidency will leave with Radev and which ones will stay with her to finish the term. Iliyana Yotova will have to be very careful, especially if she is preparing to run in the upcoming presidential elections in the fall. And in them she will undoubtedly count on the support of Radev and his project.