The prices of gasoline and diesel in Bulgaria may increase by about 15 euro cents from next week due to the surge in international prices of petroleum products against the backdrop of the military conflict in the Middle East. This was commented on by energy experts in the studio of "This Morning" on bTV.
According to Dimitar Hadzhidimitrov, deputy chairman of the Association of Bulgarian Traders, Producers and Importers of Fuels, the increase at gas stations is currently still limited.
„Currently, the price of a column is about 4 euro cents higher, but the delivery price of fuels has jumped by about 13 euro cents in the last six days“, he explained.
According to him, most gas stations have stocks for between 3 and 7 days, which means that the higher international prices will begin to be felt gradually.
„By the end of next week, we cannot help but see an increase of about 13-15 euro cents for gasoline and diesel“, Hadzhidimitrov predicted.
The expert emphasized that at this stage there is a shortage of fuels in Bulgaria there is no shortage and the market is well supplied. The queues of tankers that have been observed in recent days at some bases are more likely the result of overstocking by traders expecting a price increase.
However, prices cannot remain isolated from international markets.
“We cannot be an island. We work on Mediterranean market prices and when they increase, this is inevitably reflected in our country“, explained Hadzhidimitrov.
According to him, the prices of petroleum products on international markets have increased by about 40% compared to last week.
With regard to natural gas, the price reaction will be slower, commented Kiril Temelkov - former director of “Bulgartransgaz“ and Deputy Chairman of the Bulgarian Gas Association.
The reason is that prices for end users are set on a monthly basis by the Energy and Water Regulatory Commission, which means that any increase will be felt in April at the earliest.
„The gas market is currently extremely volatile. In a few days, the price on the Dutch exchange almost doubled – from around 32 to over 60 euros per megawatt-hour, but then dropped again“, Temelkov pointed out.
He added that Bulgaria has over 40% availability in the gas storage, which provides a certain buffer.
In addition, part of Bulgaria's supplies come under the long-term contract with Azerbaijan, which is less dependent on short-term market fluctuations.
„This contract acts as a buffer – it does not react so quickly to spot prices“, explained Temelkov.
He stressed that the European gas market reacts very sensitively to news related to the military conflict, the transport of liquefied gas and the security of key routes.
An additional factor for instability is the situation surrounding the supply of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the Persian Gulf region. Some of the liquefaction facilities in Qatar have temporarily limited their activities, which also increases market tension.
The Strait of Hormuz - a key route through which a significant part of the world's oil and liquefied gas trade passes - also remains a significant risk to supplies.
“The markets react more to news than to a real shortage. There is gas, but uncertainty raises prices“, explained Temelkov.