After years in which the Belene NPP project seemed to be finally abandoned, the topic has returned to the public agenda. The occasion was Prime Minister Rumen Radev's words that the possibility of Ukrainian participation in the construction of the plant is being discussed. Is such a project possible, where could the financing come from, what could be the role of France, is Russia's consent necessary, what is the condition of the equipment already purchased and how far have the preparations for the seventh and eighth units of the Kozloduy NPP reached? Energy expert Bogomil Manchev spoke to FACTI on these issues.
- Mr. Manchev, surprisingly the topic of the construction of the NPP “Belene“. Prime Minister Rumen Radev spoke about possible Ukrainian participation. How realistic is such an idea?
- It is completely realistic, I would even say that it is one hundred percent possible, especially when it comes to a project between two countries. Ukraine will have a huge need for electricity for at least the next 20 years due to the large-scale destruction of its energy system. Restoration cannot be done in a day or a year. Bulgaria can implement the NPP “Belene“ with Ukrainian participation, if Ukraine attracts the necessary financing and both countries become co-owners of the plant, which will be built on the Belene site. This is a completely possible model.
Ukraine is already receiving significant funds from the European Union for the reconstruction of its country. In addition, it has another important financing opportunity. The European Union has recognized nuclear energy as a green technology and removed restrictions on European funds from participating in the financing of such projects. The fund for the construction of new nuclear capacities alone has about 205 billion euros, and separately there is another 35-36 billion euros to extend the life of existing reactors - as Bulgaria did with the fifth and sixth units of the Kozloduy NPP.
The most reasonable approach is to first extend the operation of the operating reactors, and in parallel to this to start building new capacities. Of course, the construction of a new nuclear power plant requires serious investments, time and huge organizational resources.
- One of the most frequently asked questions is related to the Russian equipment for the Belene NPP. How can such a project be implemented in the current geopolitical situation?
- It is time to stop with the mantra that nothing can be done without Russia. This is simply not true. Bulgaria has already purchased the equipment. There are so-called samples of the metal that are subject to research. Once they are analyzed, the responsibility for them will lie with the owner of the future power plant, that is, Bulgaria or the project company, if it is created.
All the remaining equipment outside the reactor part can be supplied by Western manufacturers. For example, France, through its companies, can provide the turbines and the entire non-nuclear part of the power plant. As for the nuclear island, we have the necessary metal and after the necessary checks it will be confirmed that its qualities meet all the requirements.
This steel is designed to last up to 120 years in terms of the so-called cold brittleness. According to the project, the “Belene“ NPP should operate for 60 years, and between the 50th and 55th year after the start of operation, the material can be tested again and, if the results are positive, the operational period can be extended by another 20 or 30 years. This was already foreseen in the initial project of the power plant.
- An argument is put forward that without the signature of the Russian chief designer the project cannot be implemented. Is that really the case?
- No, that is not true. I want to explain what the signature of the chief designer actually means. If I, as the owner, operate the nuclear island exactly according to the rules he prescribed, and nevertheless a failure occurs, then his signature matters, because he is responsible for the design decision and should bear the corresponding consequences.
When this signature is missing, the responsibility remains entirely with the owner of the plant or the design company, in this case Bulgaria. But provided that the metal is examined and its suitability is proven, such a problem practically does not exist. That is why I think it is time to stop repeating this mantra that without the Russian designer the project cannot be implemented.
- What other option do we have then?
- The option is France. France has already signed a contract for the supply of nuclear fuel for the sixth unit of the Kozloduy NPP. This is the same type of fuel that should be used in the Belene NPP. Since France can supply this fuel, it can also supply all the systems that manage the neutron flux in the primary circuit and the operation of the reactor. France can provide all the non-nuclear equipment for the Belene NPP.
That is, we do not have a technological problem. The big question is whether France will agree to participate and under what financial conditions. This is already a matter of negotiations.
- What administrative and regulatory procedures will be necessary if the project is resumed?
- After, for example, France says whether it agrees and under what conditions, a new renotification of the project must be made. It is often claimed that the environmental impact assessment is no longer valid. This is also not entirely true. Since the technology, reactor power and fuel used do not change, the environmental impact does not change either. This simply needs to be proven again and the assessment can be confirmed.
As for the construction permit - it really needs to be reissued, because the old one has already expired according to the Spatial Planning Act. Otherwise, we have a project and it is completely ready. The documentation is at the Nuclear Regulatory Agency and has been prepared with three revisions since 2012, when the state decided to terminate the project.
In the event of a possible resumption, a so-called non-conformity plan is prepared under the Spatial Planning Act. This report is submitted to the Nuclear Regulatory Agency and it is checked whether there have been any changes in the safety functions in the meantime as a result of the new requirements or international experience.
If there are fundamental changes, the project must be revised. But there are no such catastrophic changes. Of course, there will be individual adjustments, but the basic design remains fully applicable.
- To what extent is the Belene site prepared for future construction?
- The preparation is very serious. The so-called ballast cushions for the first and second units have been built. The site itself was originally designed for four reactors. If it ever comes to the construction of the third and fourth units, then new ballast cushions will have to be built. However, this is a prospect after 25-30 years.
- Have there already been talks with France about the future of the Belene site?
- Yes. During the caretaker cabinet, when the Minister of Energy was Rosen Hristov, and his deputy was Elenko Bozhkov, talks were held with France.
At that time, it was discussed that France should conduct a feasibility study for the Belene site using the equipment that Bulgaria had already purchased. The possibility of using the site for the construction of entirely French nuclear reactors was also considered. This was precisely the subject of the feasibility study. No contract was signed at that time, because it had to be concluded between the French company and NEK, since NEK owns the site. However, NEK was not allowed to sign such a contract. Subsequently, this contract remained somewhere in a drawer.
Later, when Rumen Radev was Minister of Energy, a protocol was signed between the Bulgarian and French Ministers of Energy that Bulgaria and France would develop nuclear energy on the territory of Bulgaria. But the people who opposed the “Belene“ project made sure that the explicit mention of the Belene site was dropped from the text.
- Small modular reactors are also being talked about more and more often. How do you see their place in the future of nuclear energy?
- Small modular reactors are undoubtedly an interesting technology and France is also working in this direction. But in my opinion, they are more suitable for large energy-intensive enterprises that want to produce electricity for their own needs.
Currently, these reactors are still relatively expensive as an investment. It takes time for the technology to be further developed to become more accessible and easier to go through all regulatory procedures. In addition, a number of security issues need to be resolved, especially with regard to cybersecurity, which is extremely important today. There is still not enough clear regulation and humanity is yet to find solutions to these issues.
- If cooperation between Bulgaria and Ukraine for the “Belene“ NPP comes to fruition, what financing options do you see?
- Different models are possible. One option is for Bulgaria and Ukraine to participate jointly in the financing and subsequently become co-owners of the plant. One option is for Bulgaria and Ukraine to jointly participate in the financing and subsequently become co-owners of the plant. One option is for Bulgaria to build the two nuclear units, and for Ukraine to sign a long-term contract for the purchase of the electricity produced. For example, for a period of 20 years at a pre-agreed price.
If we assume current market levels of around 100 euros per megawatt-hour, such a contract would be worth approximately 16 billion euros over 20 years. Of course, it could include a mechanism for updating the price over time. It is precisely such a contract that could serve as a bank guarantee to the financial institutions that will finance the construction.
- It is also claimed that the price of electricity depends directly on the cost of building the plant. Is that true?
- No. This is one of the most common misconceptions. When you sell electricity on the open market, its price depends solely on the market, not on how much you paid to build the plant.
It is important for banks to have a clear financial model that shows that the investment can be paid off in 15-20 years. That is why the state usually concludes a contract for the difference between the market price and the required price, which guarantees the repayment of the loan. That is why we say that there is no bankrupt nuclear power plant in the world. Many other types of power plants have failed, but there is no bankrupt nuclear power plant.
- How is the project for the seventh and eighth units of the “Kozloduy“ NPP developing? Are we slowing down?
- Nuclear projects generally develop slowly, especially when they are not structured properly from the very beginning. We made some mistakes. But we need the seventh and eighth units. We also need the first and second units of the Belene NPP. I hope that we will be able to implement all these projects within the next 25 years. We are currently in the middle of 2026, and in 2047 we must decommission the fifth unit of the Kozloduy NPP, and in 2051 - the sixth unit. This means that we must build at least two new nuclear units in time to replace them. It is even good to build two more, so that around 2052 Bulgaria will have four operating nuclear units. It is also good to have several gas-fired power plants, because they react much faster to electricity shortages and make the energy system more stable.
- You mentioned the stability of the electricity system. How do you assess the development of renewable sources in our country?
- With the many batteries and the many solar parks, we made the energy system extremely unstable. The result was great chaos. In my opinion, the Energy System Operator (ESO) and the Energy and Water Regulatory Commission (EWRC) should have introduced a planned construction of photovoltaic capacities. For example, they should say that this year 500 megawatts will be connected, next year another 500, and so gradually develop the network. It is also very important where these capacities will be built, so that they are built where there is a need for energy consumption. Instead, too many capacities were built in a short time, the network was overloaded, and now we are wondering how to balance it. This is the real problem.
- At what stage is the project for the seventh and eighth units with the Westinghouse company?
- Westinghouse recently requested a 14-month extension of the contract they have with “Kozloduy NPP - New capacities“ for the preparation of the conceptual design.
Initially, the contract was supposed to end in February or March of this year. If we add another 14 months, we will reach mid-2027. By then, the conceptual design should already be ready. After that, the preparation of the bills of quantities will begin to make it clear what equipment will be needed and what the final cost of the project will be. Part of Westinghouse's equipment is manufactured in Japan by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, and another part - in the United States. Therefore, it remains to be specified how the supply chain will be organized and only then will it become clear what the final cost of the project will be.
- When can we realistically expect the first new reactor to start operating?
- If we assume that the first concrete is poured in 2032 and the construction is going according to schedule, then about five years later - in 2037 - the unit could enter commercial operation. With the eighth unit, there were some technological issues and clarifications related to the site itself, so it will most likely be ready in 2039 or 2040.
This is not a disaster. Such deadlines are completely normal when building large nuclear power plants. Almost everywhere in the world there is some delay. The important thing is that when you say you will build a reactor in five years, you really manage to do it in five years. At the moment, only the Chinese manage to fit into the deadlines they initially set for building new nuclear power plants.