While Trump and Putin are draining the strength of their economies with insane wars and policies - this is increasingly a reason for analysts to talk about a coming Chinese world order.
Arguments for the greatness of China - pain. Be it AI, economic power, incredible trade surpluses, control over rare metals and increasingly - that it is peaceful, very rarely enters into wars and therefore deserves to lead the world with this reputation.
I will try to explain in a few lines why China is extremely dangerous for the world.
China entered the global economy through the backyard. For a long time, the US denied it access to the WTO (World Trade Organization), which would facilitate its trade around the world, because China refused to comply with the rules of free trade. But that changed - after the unfortunate bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade during the Kosovo crisis in 1999 - Clinton agreed to open the doors to them.
The Chinese economic model has the following specifics:
(1) Two-chain economy:
The first chain is high value-added, almost entirely for export. The second chain is low value-added - household goods. Unlike most countries that specialize in one type of goods - aiming to produce with high value and import with low value-added - China aims to produce everything for self-sufficiency.
(2) Subsidized exports: the secret of export success. China subsidizes almost all goods - so that it can offer a lower price in any market, regardless of the goods. The idea is to kill local production and competitors - and then start raising the price. For this reason, they maintain an artificially low exchange rate of the yuan to the dollar (prohibited by the WTO) - to facilitate exports.
(3) Thus, the CCP achieves not only economic dependence on foreign markets from low prices of Chinese goods - which increase consumption and taxes for local politicians. But the same happens with the Chinese economy itself - almost all large companies and regions depend on subsidies.
(4) Thus - unlike the West - there are practically no independent vital Chinese companies that can operate independently on a market principle. However, no one cares about bankruptcies - local regional bosses are evaluated on growth; they pressure banks to give new and new loans or the state grants new and new subsidies - in order to maintain employment, pay taxes and pursue China's strategic goals of economic enslavement of the world.
(5) While the world economy is growing, this model was acceptable - but now Chinese exports are growing many times faster and make the model unsustainable. There is no way the whole world can import from China, and 2/3 of the entire production capacity is only for export.
(6) The US has already started to close its market, and Europe is also on the way with new tariffs - after it became clear that China is not simply pursuing commercial goals. It gave itself away - when it stopped access to processed rare metals for some countries - with its quasi-monopoly on such technologies.
(7) The Chinese economic model is entirely dependent on foreign markets - especially the US and Europe. Without them, it will break, and the crisis with the huge debt at all levels (about 300% of GDP!) can sink the entire country.
( The choice is simple - either China balances its model with the opening of the domestic market and the “Westernization” of the economy as part of the developed world. Or continue with the geopolitical ambitions of economic conquest and collapse.
A few words about Europe. It really faces a very difficult choice:
Either to join the US with high tariffs to limit Chinese imports. This will help its producers, but consumers will pay the price. And higher prices will increase inflation and interest rates, which will hit indebted Southern Europe.
Or to continue to support Chinese imports - gradually digging its own grave with Chinese conquest - which is already happening with Germany.
By the way, the war in Ukraine and China's aid to Russia is part of this very scenario. China does not need the EU, but the economies of individual countries that buy its goods. And Putin does not need the EU either - a “bad” example for his subjects and…neighbors.