Daniel Smilov's Comment:
"The Untouchables" is a good film by Brian De Palma with Robert De Niro and Kevin Costner, which tells the story of Al Capone. In one of the scenes, Al Capone (Robert De Niro) has gathered the bosses of his gang for a formal dinner and with a half-joking-half-sinister monologue he imposes his authority on them. They laugh exaggeratedly at the jokes, but everyone knows that the whole thing will probably end very badly. And at one point, Al Capone takes out a baseball bat and smashes the head of one of the gang members because "he didn't work for the team".
Boyko Borisov's weekly theater in front of the GERB top leadership was held in a similar style. And Prime Minister Zhelyazkov seemed to not know until the end whether his head would remain intact or not. Borisov joked and waved the bat, until in the end everyone felt a huge relief because they were sent to "work for the team" in their hometowns. Only Zhelyazkov, and the rest of the country's citizens, did not understand whether he still had a head or not.
The humiliation is not only for Zhelyazkov, but for the entire country
The first conclusion from the theater is that something extremely miserable has happened to the Bulgarian public environment, since the largest party can afford to play it out on national airwaves. Borisov's spokesmen even raved about how he proved that he "drives the train alone". Some sniffed affectionately how even Peevski admitted that everything depended on Borisov. And many gloated over Zhelyazkov's humiliation.
However, the humiliation is not for Zhelyazkov, but for the entire country and especially for the voters and the leadership of GERB, who allow themselves to be put in such a humiliating situation. That is, "their charismatic leader" to treat them like rags and allow himself outbursts that are suitable for a mafia boss. And they are definitely not suitable for a leader of a democratic formation. (It is even embarrassing to talk about the frankly vulgar remarks regarding the Speaker of the National Assembly Natalia Kiselova - if this is also explained by "charisma", then this charisma seems to be something quite vile.)
What was the point of the whole performance and what follows from it? Why was this dramatic shock necessary? The explanations that were put forward in one way or another were mainly three.
Why did Borisov put on this theater
First, Borisov reacted to the situation in Pazardzhik, which, although unrepresentative for the country, is worrying for GERB. The anxiety comes from the fact that Peevski "ate" all the corporate and bought votes, which previously went to GERB or to GERB's convenient satellites. If this is repeated in other places, the result on a national scale becomes unpredictable. What happened in Pazardzhik also showed that the New Beginning neither has scruples regarding vote buying, nor are they afraid to use the police as an umbrella for electoral tricks. And the result is indicative - a huge presence of the MRF in the "vulnerable" sections, although in the previous elections the vote went to other parties. In political research, a sharp change in voting in favor of different parties is a main indicator of a bought and corporate vote - from the point of view of public debate, this is sufficient evidence. The rest is a job for the police and the prosecutor's office, which simply refuse to do it.
The second explanation is necessary because Borisov's fear of "being eaten" of corporate and purchased electoral fat is real, but it is not enough to explain what is happening. The "solution" to the problem that was proposed was the official entry of the New Beginning into the ruling majority. This cannot happen painlessly and perhaps that is why Borisov resorted to the dramatic shock with the mafia scene. Most likely, Peevski will officially enter the coalition, but even if he does not, his influence on Borisov and GERB will not decrease. Therefore, these maneuvers make sense only in view of "whitening" and "cleansing" Peevski, as well as for a stronger negotiating position for his removal from the "Magnitsky" list. In the end, the Americans may be more favorable to a deputy prime minister or at least an official member of a friendly government.
The Difficulties
However, there are many difficulties in implementing this plan. The first is that Borisov must receive some kind of compensation for the promotion of Delyan Peevski. The angry outburst and the threat to dismantle the entire structure carried the following message: if I don't get something big, I won't play with you anymore. And here comes the question of Zhelyazkov's head. In short, the theater is a test of whether Borisov can become prime minister. And in any case, this will be one of the conditions for Peevski's entry into power, especially if there is no very negative public reaction to this idea in the meantime.
The second difficulty is the ITN. They have been silent so far and seem to be negotiating. The price for their remaining in the structure will be very high for GERB and Peevski: Slavi's people will want resource ministries and probably specific deals. All of this will create serious problems for the new budget and Borisov and Peevski's plans for it. Therefore, it is likely that the ITN will leave and be replaced with bargained-for MPs from "Velicie". Negotiations and haggling in this direction seem to be underway, which may at least aim to lower the price of the ITN. But things are complicated here, because the ITN may also exit the government with a bang, offering themselves as an ally of Radev (why not his mandate holder) in new elections.
The third option
The third version of what happened is a combination of the above two plus something else. Borisov is scared of Pazardzhik and compensates with an exaggerated angry reaction. He is testing the waters of bringing Peevski into power officially, in a government in which Borisov would be prime minister. But he is afraid of such a development and is actually hoping for a strongly negative public reaction that will prevent it. With the theater, he is buying time for this reaction to unfold. And if that happens, Borisov will be able to say with relief to his partner: "Look, I tried, but it doesn't work. They will lift us up on a balloon. So let's replace Kiselova and Dani Mitov, and we'll see later".
As far as Borisov is known in Bulgarian publicity, the third option suits him the most. And this third option can also go in another direction if the public, including the media, spokespeople and the street, actually remain passive and do not oppose the plan. Then Borisov and Peevski can shake hands in an official two-headed government of their own. In it, Borisov will again drive the train, but the train will be mounted on the MRF's cart.