Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban may find unexpected support in his bid to block Ukraine's accession to the European Union — even from countries that don't share his closeness to Moscow but defend their veto power over the bloc's enlargement, writes "Politico".
Ahead of a meeting of EU leaders in Copenhagen on October 1, European Council President Antonio Costa is lobbying European leaders to find a way around Hungary's opposition to Kiev joining the bloc, among other stalled membership bids.
As first reported on Monday, the Portuguese politician has proposed changing EU rules to allow the start of to formal accession talks after approval by a qualified majority of leaders, rather than unanimous consent as currently required.
But Costa’s plan has proven controversial. While Orban is the EU leader closest to President Vladimir Putin and most hostile to Ukraine, other leaders have very different motives for joining his side — mainly to protect their veto power.
The plan faces resistance from several EU countries, including France, the Netherlands and Greece, and is unlikely to gain widespread approval in Denmark, according to three EU diplomats and a French presidency official who spoke to "Politico" on condition of anonymity.
The concern among those countries is that by changing the accession rules, they would also limit their own ability to block membership applications they see as problematic, the people said. This opens up a host of rivalries that Orban can play on: It is important for the Greeks, for example, to show that they can continue negotiations on Turkey’s membership, just as the Bulgarians want to be able to set the border of North Macedonia and the Croats want to block Serbia.
Kosta’s proposal would open a way forward not only for Ukraine – whose candidacy has been on hold for months due to Orban’s veto – but also for Moldova, since the two countries’ bids are linked.
According to a senior EU official, Costa’s proposal will be discussed in Copenhagen today, along with another proposal to use frozen Russian assets to help Ukraine. "To this day, no leader has said a complete "no" "I'm not against this idea," the senior official said, referring to Costa's proposal to change the rules.
Finnish President Alexander Stubb told Politico that he supports any attempt to speed up the process. "Personally, I welcome any decision-making mechanism that gives more flexibility and less room for blockage, and never more so than with Ukraine," he said.
But the camp opposing Costa and Stubb may be too strong. And if the price of keeping the rules is that Ukraine and Moldova may have to wait months, if not years, to see how their applications progress, that is a price these countries are willing to pay.
"We are not at all convinced to change the rules of the game during the game, because that is what some are suggesting," said a senior EU diplomat, who was granted anonymity.
"If qualified majority voting is used [to speed up the accession process], there is a very high risk that the process will be highly politicized," they added.
Even more challenging is that to change the rules, all 27 member states, including Hungary, would have to agree - something that is not possible for these diplomats.
"If we had to change or develop the decision-making process, that would also have to be decided unanimously, "which seems impossible today," a French presidency official said.
The push to streamline EU accession comes as senior EU officials support Ukraine and Moldova's bids for membership.
Von der Leyen has repeatedly said that Ukraine's place is in the EU, arguing that Kiev could achieve full membership in the 27-nation group by 2030 if it continues with judicial and economic reforms.
Kyiv has carried out judicial reforms and held extensive talks with counterparts in Brussels, but legally, negotiations have not yet started. That's because under current rules Hungary can block formal talks.
Moldova is in the same situation. Chisinau’s bid to join the 27-nation bloc – which President Maia Sandu has made the centerpiece of her campaign ahead of last Sunday’s parliamentary elections – is tied to Ukraine’s, meaning it cannot move forward while Kiev’s bid remains blocked.
The stalled process has come at a high cost for both Sandu and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, who have both touted future EU membership as an alternative to Russia’s sphere of influence.
Costa’s initiative received support this week from the European Commission, where officials have quietly said that the current process – which requires unanimous voting at more than 100 stages – is too cumbersome.
Costa’s idea is to introduce qualified majority voting at these intermediate stages so that progress can be made even if a small number of countries are against it. However, final EU accession would still be impossible without unanimous approval.
But this push is now facing opposition from leaders who see their veto on membership as deeply tied to national sovereignty.
Greece, for example, has long opposed Turkey's membership bid, viewing it as a security threat. Athens relies on its veto power as a way to ensure that Ankara never joins the EU - even if Turkey's bid is legally frozen.
Paris has also historically opposed Turkey's accession to the bloc, with Macron telling Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as recently as 2018 that there was no chance of progress in Ankara's bid.
The same goes for Bulgaria, which wants to be able to block North Macedonia from joining the bloc, or Croatia, which has historically opposed Serbia's accession.
"Apparently the Hungarians are blocking the Ukrainians," said the top EU diplomat.
"But that's not all. "The Bulgarians want to be able to block the Macedonians, the Croats want to control the Serbs, Greece and Cyprus do not want Turkey to move closer to the EU, and Greece would also like to keep an eye on Albania," the diplomat added.
Publicly, EU leaders may oppose Hungary's blocking of Ukraine. But behind closed doors, many find it a convenient cover for their own demands.