The war waged by the US and Israel against Iran will have consequences far beyond the borders of the region - including in Ukraine. What could they be?
Less weapons for Ukraine?
Austrian military historian Markus Reisner defines the war in the Middle East as a "strategic gift for Russia and China". According to him, Russia can take advantage of the fact that the West's attention is focused on the new conflict. Thus, Ukraine can be degraded to a front of secondary importance. In the worst case, this will mean even fewer resources - specifically "Patriot" missiles, the expert told DW. Because the US itself will need weapons for the new war.
The director of the Kiev Center for Middle East Studies Ihor Semivolos also believes that the weapons vital for Ukraine may run out. The extension of the war in Iran could make the West "more lenient in its efforts to end the war in Ukraine", and this would strengthen Russia's position.
"For Ukraine, any quick end to the war would be a better option than its continuation," Ukrainian publicist Vitaly Portnikov also notes. Both experts believe that the ideal option would be the success of the US and Israel, as well as the overthrow of the Iranian regime. Once Iran becomes more predictable and stops threatening its neighbors, it will mean "stability in the Middle East and the weakening of the political and economic power of China and Russia in this region", Portnikov told DW.
High oil and gas prices are in Russia's favor
One of the biggest global consequences of the war in Iran is already a fact - the permanent rise in oil and gas prices. "This is in Moscow's interest", Portnikov points out. In this way, Russia's ability to continue the war in Ukraine is significantly increased. In this case, the Kremlin will certainly try to sell fuel at low prices in exchange for discounts.
The new war in the Middle East has already had serious repercussions on the world oil market. The price of a barrel of crude oil has exceeded $80 - given that in the middle of last week it was still worth $71. The reason is the de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, which is where oil from the Persian Gulf used to reach the Indian Ocean and other regions of the world.
It is not yet clear how long the increase in oil prices will last and to what extent Russia will benefit from it. Wilfried Ilge, an expert on Russia and Ukraine at the German Foreign Policy Association, doubts that the long-term impact of high oil prices will be able to compensate for the losses suffered by Russia due to Western sanctions. "This year, Russia will not suffer a collapse due to sanctions and the economic crisis, but there is still a slowdown in the Russian economy that can no longer be denied."
Loss of prestige for Russia
In addition to the advantages, the war in Iran also reveals a sensitive weakness for Russia: currently Moscow is not able to provide support to one of its most important allies - Iran. And this is good for Ukraine, Ilge believes. "We see that because of the war in Ukraine, Russia can no longer maintain its dominance in other regions," says the expert. Therefore, he admits that it is quite possible that Vladimir Putin's entourage will increasingly ask the question of what is the point of continuing the exhaustion in Ukraine, since the positions are generally deteriorating.
In this regard, both the fall of the regime of Moscow's ally Bashar al-Assad in Syria and the detention of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro by the United States should be noted. Moscow left both interventions unanswered.
Ukrainian experience for the Middle East
At the same time, Ukraine could strengthen its positions thanks to its experience in shooting down Iranian drones. Russia used such drones intensively at the beginning of the war, but in the meantime it has been producing its own. Iran, for its part, has attacked American military facilities in the Persian Gulf states and other sites in the region with such drones. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Kiev could send specialists to the Persian Gulf to intercept drones.
"The Persian Gulf states can benefit from the experience of the Ukrainian military, and in return, the readiness of support for Ukraine from this region could increase," says Austrian expert Markus Reisner. He believes that this support could be expressed both in sanctions against Russia and in financial aid to Ukraine.
Now Europe should also increase its support for Ukraine, without waiting for the end of the war in Iran, advises Wilfried Ilge. Specifically, he recommends that Europe step up its fight against Russia's shadowy fleet, which is used both for illegal oil exports and for military purposes. "We must take the initiative and take new steps regarding Ukraine's military equipment," says Ilge.
Authors: Danilo Bilek | Irina Ukina