Two weeks ago, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky hoped to take advantage of warming relations with US leader Donald Trump to secure the delivery of US "Tomahawk" cruise missiles - weapons that Kiev says could be a game-changer and a decisive blow to the Kremlin's military economy, writes "Politico".
After successfully brokering a ceasefire in Gaza, Trump would surely be tempted to give Ukraine what it needs to force Russian President Vladimir Putin to take negotiations seriously.
But that didn't happen.
The meeting with Zelensky at the White House was completely cordial - Trump himself used that word to describe it. There was no coldness, no return to the unpleasant Oval Office scandal of February. Zelensky has learned his lesson on this matter and now knows that respect is mandatory when addressing "dad" Trump.
The meeting, however, was largely botched because Ukraine was in too much of a hurry.
"It wasn't a bad meeting, it was just a victim of bad timing and high expectations," said a Republican foreign policy source, speaking on condition of anonymity. But it could have been much more productive if Zelensky had changed his mind and readjusted his agenda after Trump's long phone call with Putin the day before.
During that two-and-a-half-hour call, Trump teased Putin about the prospect of delivering "Tomahawk" missiles to Ukraine: "I actually said, would you mind if I gave a couple thousand "Tomahawk" missiles to your opposition? I did," the US president said, adding: "He didn't like the idea." The result was an agreement to hold another summit — this time in Budapest — with Trump again seeming convinced that Putin might be ready to end the war.
The Ukrainian leader, however, does not believe that "Putin is ready to just end this war". However, Putin's call should have caused Zelensky and his team to recalibrate, lower their expectations and, most importantly, weaken their push for cruise missiles, the source noted. "There was no way Trump would agree to the acquisition of the "Tomahawk" before his meeting with Putin in Budapest."
But Ukraine ignored the advice of its Republican friends in Washington — many of whom are skeptical that Trump would agree to give Ukraine the "Tomahawk" under any circumstances for fear of escalation and deeper US involvement in the war. It doesn't even take into account the Pentagon's concerns about the US's own stockpiles.
By not withdrawing its request for the "Tomahawk", Ukraine has squandered an opportunity to focus on a number of other important items - most notably air-to-air missiles for its F-16 and MiG fighters and surface-to-air interceptor missiles for its Patriot air defense systems. Both are needed to shoot down drones and ballistic missiles, and Ukraine is in desperate need of them due to the record air strikes that Russia is currently carrying out against it.
The focus on the "Tomahawk" has also diverted attention from other key demands, such as getting Trump’s approval to use frozen Russian sovereign assets to finance Ukraine’s defense.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Besant supports the proposal. The US holds only $7 billion in Russian assets, but the EU’s big three in the G7 – Germany, France and Italy – want Japan and America to be actively involved, fearing that using the €140 billion in Russian assets held in Europe could undermine the global authority of the euro. If Washington and Tokyo take such action, their fears would be allayed.
There has also been limited progress on discussions on US imports of liquefied natural gas from Ukraine, after Russian air strikes on Ukrainian natural gas infrastructure have increased in both intensity and frequency. So far, Ukraine’s state-owned oil and gas company "Naftogaz" has purchased about 0.5 billion cubic meters of American liquefied natural gas, but more will be needed if the country is to survive the winter. Earlier this month, Ukrainian Energy Minister Svetlana Grinchuk said that Kiev is aiming to increase its total gas imports by 30%.
In this vein, the country's Economy Minister Oleksiy Sobolev noted last week that Ukraine is "considering mechanisms for financing the purchase of American liquefied natural gas and compressor equipment." However, according to an official from the US export credit agency Export-Import Bank, these discussions are now at a standstill because Ukraine objects to the rather restrictive terms of the proposed loan. And the bank has only limited legal options to change the terms.
In fact, the huge delegation of Ukrainian ministers and officials — including Zelensky’s powerful chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, and Prime Minister Yulia Sviridenko — sent to Washington ahead of Friday’s White House meeting failed on all counts, failing to finalize several important agreements involving both the U.S. government and the private sector.
"The idea was to prepare large-scale things, including some agreements with major U.S. defense companies and energy players, all to be signed during the White House meeting," the Republican source explained. But in the end, nothing was ready.
"Unfortunately, nothing really concrete was agreed upon all week," another Republican foreign policy adviser agreed. He noted that the misguided focus on "Tomahawk" missiles is only part of the problem - the other is the timing of Zelensky's visit and the overall Ukrainian lobbying effort in Washington.
"We urged them to wait", he said. It was important that Sviridenko and the economic representatives were in Washington for the annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank, but the rest of the lobbying effort had to be postponed by about a week. And certainly Zelensky's offer to exchange Ukrainian drone technology for "Tomahawk" was premature.
First, the Trump administration was still very focused on the Middle East. Also, with the government shutdown and the blame game over the budget battle between Democrats and Republicans, there was not enough oxygen for Ukraine.