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Orban returned from Washington with an unclear victory

Regardless of what Donald Trump has allowed Viktor Orban, this does not cancel the EU's plans for a mandatory complete shutdown of Russian oil and gas by the end of 2027 for all member states, without exceptions

Nov 12, 2025 06:00 320

Orban returned from Washington with an unclear victory  - 1
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At the end of last week, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban arrived in Washington on an official visit, where he met with US President Donald Trump. The meeting at the White House, the first between the two leaders since Trump returned to power at the beginning of the year, not only strengthened the long-standing friendship between the two conservative politicians, but also led to concrete agreements, which Orban presented as the result of the "most important meeting of the year". At a press conference given to Hungarian media after his talks with Trump, Orban confirmed that Budapest "is receiving a full exemption from sanctions" on Russian gas supplied to Hungary via the "Turkish Stream" pipeline and oil supplied via the "Družba" pipeline. Washington is also lifting sanctions on the construction of the Hungarian "Paks-2" nuclear power plant under the Rosatom project, Orban said.

Later, the Hungarian prime minister added on his "Facebook" profile that they "have shaken hands" with US President Donald Trump to permanently exempt Hungary from US oil sanctions. "As long as he is president there and I am prime minister here, there will be no sanctions. "It is no exaggeration that we have held the most important negotiations so far this year," he pointed out, adding that the stakes for Hungary were maximum: the entry into force of US sanctions against Russian energy resources would have led to a double or triple increase in household bills before Christmas and a 1,000 forint (approx. 5 leva) increase in the price of a liter of gasoline in Hungary. "This would have been a real disaster. We managed to avoid this danger. This way, Hungarian families will have the Christmas they want," the prime minister concluded.

Agence France-Presse, however, notes that in fact the derogation announced by Trump for Hungary will be valid for only one year. In return, Budapest has committed to ordering US liquefied gas worth around $600 million. AFP notes that the US sanctions would have weakened the Hungarian prime minister's position a few months before parliamentary elections in his country, which the nationalist leader, in power since 2010, is not sure he will win.

The question arises as to how successful Orban's mission in Washington was? The Hungarian media and political analysts, highly polarized, covered the trip in different ways, reflecting the deep ideological split in the country.

Opposition media emphasized that regardless of the outcome, Orban would present his trip as a huge success to distract from his domestic failures. The information portal "444.hu" called the visit "high-risk", emphasizing that Hungary has been paying $13 billion to Russia for oil since 2022, and also that the derogation is "a temporary pause, not a solution". At the same time, the portal notes that Orban would have presented the results as a huge success in any case before the 2026 elections, even though what was achieved does not actually solve the long-term dependence on Russia and contradicts the European Union's policy of complete refusal by 2027. The publication concludes that the trip to Washington was "campaign PR, not real energy diplomacy".

"Regardless of what Donald Trump has allowed Viktor Orban, this does not cancel the European Union's plans for a mandatory complete shutdown of Russian oil and gas by the end of 2027 for all member states, without exceptions", notes the opposition newspaper "Nepsovo". The publication calls the derogation "a meaningless illusion" from a geographical, mathematical, legal and economic point of view and is "the replacement of one dependence with another" - Russian oil for American debts. According to the article, when the EU imposes a complete refusal of Russian energy resources, this will lead to economic chaos if Orban does not really diversify the sources. The publication additionally notes that the derogation, regardless of its duration, is an attempt by Trump to help Orban get re-elected, but in this way the American president endangers his own authority and weakens the pressure on Russia and the largest buyers of Russian energy carriers: China, India and Turkey.

The opposition "Hettivilag Gazdasag" emphasizes that the derogation is one-year, not indefinite, as Orban claims, and defines it as "strategic replacement": Hungary buys American LNG for $ 600 million in exchange for a temporary continuation of Russian imports. This, according to the publication, "helps Orban before the elections, but affects the unity of the European Union".

The conservative "Mandiner" described the derogation as "the most important diplomatic victory of the decade, which protects Hungary's low prices and energy independence from the EU". According to the publication, the meeting gives Budapest a "strategic advantage", allowing it to ignore Brussels' demands and focus on peace in Ukraine.

The pro-government newspaper "Modyar Nemzet" presented the visit as a "diplomatic revolution". It emphasized that Orbán is "the only European leader who can speak on an equal footing with Trump", and that the derogation saves Hungarian households from "a tripling of electricity and gas bills in December". The publication noted that a "golden age" of relations with the United States is dawning, which contrasts with "Brussels oppression". At the same time, the publication accused the opposition of "spreading fake news" that the derogation was temporary.

The tabloid "Blik" notes that the derogation is a personal victory for Orbán, emphasizing that he has defended "lower energy prices", reaching deals worth 466 billion forints, and that he has saved the country from "energy shock". At the same time, the publication still notes the discrepancy in terms – whether it will be for one year or indefinitely, describing what is happening as "diplomatic ambiguity".

Hungarian political scientists are unanimous that the visit is a "political victory" for Orban, especially before the April 2026 elections, where the ruling Fidesz party faces economic stagnation and opposition pressure from Péter Magyar and his Tisza party. The British newspaper "The Guardian" quoted Hungarian political scientist Zsuzsanna Weg of the German Marshall Fund: "This will be presented as a huge success to highlight Orban's international influence and distract from Fidesz's failures at home." She stressed that Trump had been "crystal clear" in his support for Orban's re-election.

Hungarian analyst Gábor Szeryng sees deeper problems: "This is a pyrrhic victory that is worth more than the gifts and promises to Trump and the economic commitments made by Hungary in Budapest". According to the expert, the derogation is temporary, and the contracts for American gas and nuclear reactors increase dependence on the United States without solving the main problem - the lack of diversification. Schering notes that the Hungarian oil company “Modyar Olay“ is already modernizing and setting up refineries to be able to refine the oil that will arrive from the Croatian Adriatic coast and that 80% of the needs can be covered without Russia, albeit at higher costs.

Hungarian political scientist Daniel Hegedus commented to "Euronews" that as an ally, the Trump administration could not allow Orban to leave the White House looking weaker. “Trump was crystal clear that he wanted the Hungarian prime minister to be re-elected. And against this background, they are aware that they should not weaken him. "I think that this secured a small symbolic victory for Orban," said Hegedus.

The meeting will not change the balance of power in the country, political scientist Gabor Törok believes, commenting on his Facebook profile: "It is difficult to assess the political consequences of Viktor Orban's trip to Washington for his homeland. Five months before the election, in an extremely polarized race, it would be a vain illusion or an unfounded fear to expect that any event could trigger radical changes. At the same time, it is quite obvious that this is a clear political success that Fidesz will be happy to boast about."

Certainly - at least on the surface, Orban achieved his key goal - energy security - plus public support from Trump, which will be used in the election campaign, the BBC notes in turn. Orban returned with contracts for $20-30 billion in US investments that will create jobs and improve his image as a "global mediator". The setbacks? No progress on peace in Ukraine – the proposal for a summit in Budapest was postponed after Russia refused to truce. Double taxation, which hurts trade, was not restored, and the visit increased tensions with the EU.

The mission is a tactical success because it gives Orban time and resources for the elections, strengthening his image as a "strong leader", believes “European Conservative“: but strategically, it highlights vulnerabilities: dependence on authoritarian allies (Russia, USA) and confrontation with the EU. "At the same time, it seems that Washington has proven to be a more valuable ally than Brussels", the publication concludes.