A leaked version of the US National Security Strategy reveals that Washington is trying to split the EU. According to it, America plans to tear four countries away from the Community. How realistic is this?
Donald Trump's inauguration has greatly damaged transatlantic ties. The publication of the National Security Strategy on December 4 was perceived by many European politicians as an open challenge. The strategic document describes Europe as a continent in decline. It talks about "censorship" of free expression, "suppression of political opposition" and possibly "erasure of civilization" because of the current migration policy.
However, information has now emerged about a previously unpublished version of the strategy, which seems even more worrying - and provides more details about the future approach of the US towards Europe. This project envisages more intensive cooperation of the US with Italy, Austria, Poland and Hungary "with the aim of tearing them away from the EU", quotes the content of the document by the American portal Defense One, which claims to have access to the document. The White House denied the existence of such a project to Defense One.
And yet: is the US trying to split the EU? And why are these four countries in question?
Hungary, Austria, Poland, Italy
The least surprise in the list of these four countries is Hungary. Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and President Donald Trump are considered close allies. Orbán has supported Trump since his first term, and has consistently destabilized the EU, weakening an institution that Trump deeply distrusts.
At the same time, Orbán enjoys the political support of the superpower. The US has reportedly offered a $20 billion "financial protection" for the Hungarian economy - as it is currently weak and important EU funds remain frozen. In a recent interview with "Politico" Trump cannot actually remember saying this, but confirms that talks about financial cooperation are underway. Trump is always ready to help his "great friend".
The American president is also impressed by Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and her post-fascist "Brothers of Italy" party. However, political scientist Daniel Hegedusch believes that if the US government expects Meloni to actually take a stand against the EU, it would be a "misunderstanding". Since, despite her known closeness to Orbán, she has never blocked Community decisions, she is rather showing pragmatism: few others understand as well as Meloni what a stable and functioning EU can bring to their country, Hegedusch told DW.
Poland and Austria currently do not have right-wing populist governments, but until recently both countries were governed by right-wing and Eurosceptic parties that remain extremely influential - such as the Austrian Freedom Party and the right-wing conservative Law and Justice in Poland. Therefore, the Trump administration is likely to assume that there will soon be greater opportunities for influence in both countries.
But why are Slovakia and the Czech Republic absent?
The absence of the Czech Republic and Slovakia in this supposed version of the strategy, however, surprises observers. In the Czech Republic, elections in October were won by the right-wing populist ANO party of billionaire Andrej Babis, who formed a ruling coalition with two other right-wing parties.
Slovakia, on the other hand, has been leaning to the right since 2023 under the leadership of Robert Fico. His ostensibly social democratic, but in fact rather right-wing nationalist SMER party was recently expelled from the Social Democratic Party faction in the European Parliament.
Both Babis and Fico are staunch Eurosceptics. Both have the potential to bring chaos to EU decision-making and undermine the authority of the community on strategic issues, especially with regard to Russia and Ukraine. The Trump administration should appreciate this in the context of its current orientation.
According to political scientist Hegedusch, the explanation for their absence in the strategic document lies in the roots of the respective parties. ANO could not be defined in the classic "right-left" spectrum for a long time, and "Smer" was initially perceived as a left-wing party. "Because "Smer" and ANO do not have a classic right-wing populist background, they are not considered like-minded, even if they pursue policies that are beneficial to the Trump administration."
Sequential destruction of European integration
The first attempts by the new American government to interfere in democratic processes in Europe at the beginning of the year, such as Vice President J.D. Vance's provocative speech at the Munich Security Conference, were initially partly ignored by observers of transatlantic relations. It was said that the government in Washington first had to find its role. But since then, the American government has interfered again and again - in the German, Romanian, Polish election campaigns. The intervention has always followed the same pattern: support is given to someone whom the Trump government considers an ally - and who weakens Brussels.
According to experts such as Hegedüsch, the US goal is not for the four countries mentioned to leave the Community, but to gradually destroy European integration - with diplomatic, political and possibly even financial means.
The first signs of this are already visible: for example, the EU has agreed to gradually exit energy dependence on Russia. By the end of 2026, the import of liquefied natural gas should be banned, and by November 2027, the import of gas through gas pipelines. At the same time, in November, Hungarian Prime Minister Orban obtained an exemption from US sanctions on the import of Russian energy from Trump. He said that he did not accept the EU's decision and would take the case to the European Court of Justice. At a joint press conference with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Monday (08.12.2025), Orban announced that Turkey would continue to guarantee supplies of Russian gas to Hungary via "Turkish Stream".
Hégedüs believes that in the coming years there will be more and more such cases in which member states in individual areas do not adhere to joint decisions. This will put European integration under increasing question. And the EU may continue to be undermined - until it actually loses its relevance one day, the expert says.