Polish hotelier Władysław Grochowski organizes special celebrations for his clients who can prove that they stayed in one of his hotels nine months before the birth of their child. But in this case it is not a new marketing strategy, but the hotelier's concern about the demographic development in the country, points out the German "Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung" (FAZ).
Birth rate falls from Lithuania to Turkey
The publication cites Eurostat data, according to which Polish women give birth to an average of 1.2 children. In the EU countries with worse indicators, only Lithuania and Spain. In Hungary, Romania and Turkey, the situation is slightly better - there the ratio is 1.5 children per woman, which is above the EU average (1.38). However, to maintain the population, a ratio of 2.1 is needed.
This year, for the first time since 1952, Hungary's population fell below 9.5 million people, and in Romania, the statistical office estimated that if the current demographic trend continues, the population will fall by between 10 and 25 percent by 2080, according to the FACS.
In Turkey, President Erdogan considers it "suicide" that his compatriots do not give birth to at least three, and even better, four or five children. For Erdogan, who has four children, this is a "patriotic duty".
Countries are getting older before they get richer
Population aging translates into 0.4 percentage points lower economic growth per year, Beata Javorczyk of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) told FAC. Countries in the eastern and southeastern parts of the EU are particularly hard hit, she confirms. Her forecast is that this trend will continue until 2050, after which there will be some improvement - by the end of the century, growth will slow down by 0.18 percentage points per year due to low birth rates.
For countries like Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary or Romania, which have seen significant growth since the fall of the Iron Curtain 25 years ago, this is bad news because the average age of their population is approaching that of Western Europe faster than the income of the population. Yavorczyk sums up: "These countries are getting older before they get richer".
The fact that in many countries the number of deaths now exceeds the number of births is not only due to low birth rates, notes the FAC. Countries such as Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia or Moldova have lost around 30 percent of their population since the early 1990s as a result of emigration, including labor migration. And the fact that emigrants often include young, qualified workers makes the balance for countries suffering from "brain drain" even more bitter.
This is also a burden on public finances, as fewer and fewer workers have to support more and more pensioners. "Other economic consequences of not having enough children are a larger budget deficit, tax increases or cuts in pensions and social benefits, labor shortages, and a higher risk of inflation", points out Yavorczyk.
The labor shortage, which all economies in Central and Southeast Europe complain about, leads to an increase in wages and increases the risk of inflation.
It's not just the population that's aging - leaders are aging too
An increase in the birth rate could reduce all these negative influences. However, Yavorczyk is skeptical, and what's more - she doesn't rule out that the birth rate situation could get even worse. But measures can be taken, because demography is not fate. The EBRD expert recommends a combination of different but well-known policies, such as wider participation of women and older people in the labor market, targeted immigration and productivity growth.
"It is not only the population that is aging - world leaders are also getting older, especially in autocratic systems", says the economist, without naming names. In this regard, the FAC recalls that Vladimir Putin is 73 years old, Chinese President Xi Jinping is 72, Indian Narendra Modi is 75, Erdogan is 71, and US President Donald Trump is 79.
"The aging of politicians may turn out to be a bigger problem than the aging of the population," says Beata Javorczyk, because it reduces the readiness for changes in terms of pensions, the labor market and migration. "Only those who are willing to adopt bold reforms and include younger voters in the debate will ensure common prosperity for future generations," the publication of "Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung" also says.