They've always competed behind the scenes, but recently the conflict between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates has become increasingly visible and could escalate. What is it about?
They've always competed behind the scenes, but last week the rivalry between two of the most powerful countries in the Middle East - Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) - has become public.
On December 30, Saudi Arabia bombed the Yemeni port city of Mukalla, targeting a shipment of weapons for separatists there. The shipment was sent by the UAE to the Southern Transitional Council (STC) separatists who want to create a separate state in southern Yemen.
The UAE said the shipment was intended for its own security forces in the area, not the STC. The Saudis clearly do not believe these statements. Riyadh said it had warned the UAE not to send the weapons and that it viewed their actions as "extremely dangerous". Yemen's Hadramaut province, where the STC operates, has a long land border with Saudi Arabia. Riyadh is not willing to let it be ruled by separatists who are not allied with it, said Hesham Alghannam, a Saudi researcher at the Carnegie Center think tank.
Riyadh and Abu Dhabi pursue different goals
The Saudi strikes were the first direct confrontation between the two countries. The UAE then responded by saying it would withdraw all its troops from Yemen. But experts say that won't solve the underlying problem between the UAE and Saudi Arabia. Because they are two fundamentally different types of foreign policy, explains Christian Coates Ulrichsen, a Middle East expert at Rice University. He recalls that the two countries are on different sides in a number of conflicts. "Saudi Arabia has no appetite for new military adventurism - unlike Abu Dhabi, which takes risks and supports armed non-state regional groups," Coates Ulrichsen explains.
Saudi Arabia is more focused on seeking stability, regional economic cooperation and its own internal development, as well as working through established institutions such as the United Nations, H. A. Hellyer, a senior fellow at the Royal Institute of Defence and Security Studies in London, explained in a social media post.
The UAE and the "separatist axis"
Meanwhile, the UAE is leaning more towards a strategy that scholars describe as "destroy to build". This Machiavellian model of foreign policy does not necessarily coincide with the Arab regional consensus. Andreas Krieg of King’s College London describes what the UAE is doing as building an “axis of separatists.” The Emirates has backed various armed groups in places like Libya, Sudan, Somalia and Yemen as a way to gain influence without having to work with governments. The UAE itself regularly denies this. “This axis is more sustainable than Saudi Arabia’s state-centric approach because it does not depend on a single capital, a single channel or a single formal agreement – the Emirates thus bring together money, logistics, aviation, ports, media coverage, lobbying and public procurement,” he says.
Through multi-layered networks of “brokers, traders, shipping and aviation intermediaries, corporate structures, cash and commodity flows,” the UAE has gained influence and access to important sea routes, ports and energy hubs. This creates an "alternative regional order, where Abu Dhabi sets the terms through nodes and corridors, not through treaties. It pushes out the traditional more influential countries by shifting its levers of influence," Krieg believes.
The New Cold War
Different strategies lead to situations in which Saudi Arabia and the UAE are on opposite sides. For example, Saudi Arabia acts as a mediator in Sudan, supporting the internationally recognized government there, while the UAE is accused of supporting the Sudanese paramilitary formation, the Rapid Reaction Force (RSF). Recently, when Israel recognized Somaliland as a state, a majority of Arab countries, including Saudi Arabia, opposed the controversial decision. The UAE did not do so because it maintains ties with Somaliland and Israel.
The UAE has normalized relations with Israel, while Saudi Arabia says it will not do so until the issue of Palestinian statehood is resolved. The UAE has also been accused of encouraging separatist factions in Syria - particularly among the Druze, who also have separatist sentiments. At the same time, Riyadh supports the new Syrian government.
The differences between the two countries are becoming more difficult to navigate diplomatically, and observers suggest that this is leading to a new kind of Cold War between two of the most influential countries in the Middle East.
Sudan is a serious stress test for the UAE
"I think the Saudis acted decisively in Yemen to protect their interests, and this may be one of the first cases in which the UAE has faced a serious backlash for its support for paramilitary groups," commented Coates Ulrichsen.
However, there is no desire for a lasting rift, so most likely "the Saudis and the Emiratis will continue to move on their own separate political trajectories," the expert says.
Although the UAE has announced that it will withdraw its special forces from Yemen, they will not completely withdraw, says Krieg. "Recent events will force them to improve the process, reduce visibility and better manage the backlash, but the logic of their actions seems intact." It's a political model, Krieg believes: "When they encounter resistance, the UAE tends to adjust the packaging rather than abandon its main objective."
The UAE has achieved a lot with its methods, Krieg argues. "But the crucial variable is the reputational and political cost." For example, the group the UAE supports in Sudan, the RSF, has been accused of mass killings and other atrocities, and the UAE has been criticized for supporting them. The war in Sudan is a serious stress test of the UAE's policy of supporting the "separatist axis," Krieg summarizes.