Until recently, Russia was a close ally of Venezuela, to which it supplied military equipment. But after Maduro's arrest by the US, Russian President Putin preferred to remain silent. What does this mean, especially for the war in Ukraine?
Nicolas Maduro showered Vladimir Putin with praise during his visit to Moscow on Victory Day on May 9, 2025. The Venezuelan president called Russia a “key force for humanity“, and the two heads of state signed an agreement on “strategic partnership and cooperation“.
But on January 3, Russia was left a spectator when the US forcibly brought Maduro and his wife to New York to stand trial on drug trafficking charges.
Russian air defenses failed to protect Maduro
Days after the overthrow of the Venezuelan president, Putin remains silent. Earlier, the Russian Foreign Ministry expressed concern and called for Maduro's release, as well as negotiations between the US and Venezuela. According to official reports, the last news Maduro received from the Russian president was a New Year's greeting.
Maduro was one of the few state leaders who supported Russia in February 2022, when Moscow recognized the separatist pseudo-republics of Donetsk and Luhansk before launching its aggression against Ukraine. In December 2018, Russia sent two Tu-160 strategic bombers for exercises in Venezuela, which experts interpreted as a sign of support for Maduro. They landed at the airport in Caracas - the same one from which the US evacuated the Venezuelan leader on January 3. Russian air defenses could not protect him, as US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegsett mocked. How could this happen?
Why doesn't Putin criticize Trump?
"Russian support for Venezuela was more symbolic than real," Neil Melvin, an expert at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), told DW. According to him, Russia is not in a position to oppose American military power in the region.
German political scientist and author of a book on Russian foreign policy Felix Riefer is also not surprised. After Trump's return to the White House led to a rapprochement between Moscow and Washington, Russia reacted to "American statements regarding Venezuela with relative restraint. Russia had essentially already abandoned Maduro," Riefer said.
One reason for this is Russia's war in Ukraine and the changed role of the United States, which has changed from a Western partner of Kiev to a mediator for negotiations, according to both experts. "Russia is avoiding harsh criticism of Washington because it does not want to push it away. If there were no war in Ukraine, Moscow's rhetoric regarding the events in Venezuela would be significantly sharper, but nothing more than that," says Melvin.
The British expert does not see any immediate consequences for the war in Ukraine. However, this could change if Trump does not settle for Venezuela alone, but goes further - for example, if he tries to "annex" Greenland, which is part of Denmark. NATO is unlikely to survive such a development, Melvin believes. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen expressed a similar opinion. And what do people in Ukraine think about Trump's actions?
Cautious optimism in Ukraine
Officials in Kiev are commenting on the events in Venezuela quite reservedly. President Volodymyr Zelensky said: “If dictators can be treated this way, the United States knows what their next steps are.” The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry reiterated that it does not recognize Maduro as president.
Experts in Kiev are cautiously optimistic. Markets expect a normalization of relations between the United States and Venezuela in the foreseeable future, which would open Venezuela to oil production and have a significant impact on the global economy and oil prices, said political scientist Petro Oleshchuk of the National University of Kyiv. “Anything that lowers oil prices is beneficial for Ukraine and could have a positive effect on the negotiations. Because the cheaper the oil, the less money Russia will have at its disposal, and this breaks the thesis that Russia can wage an endless war“, says Oleszchuk.
Expert: Russia's prestige has decreased significantly
German political scientist Felix Riefer believes that Russia could use what happened in Venezuela to justify its aggression against Ukraine: “This is possible, but a direct comparison between the two cases is inaccurate“. Riefer is convinced that Moscow's prestige in the world has decreased: “Whoever has bet on Russia can no longer hope to be protected by it“, he says.
Neil Melvin emphasizes that the evidence for this has been there for a long time. “Russia has lost Syria, Armenia, and now Venezuela“, says the security expert. “Russia's international position is weakening significantly as it escalates its war in Ukraine and no longer has the resources to maintain such relations.“
And if it comes to action against Cuba, Russia's most important partner in Latin America and one of Venezuela's closest allies, Moscow is likely to protest more loudly than it is now, but Russia's options are “very limited”, Melvin believes. Cuba is one of the countries against which President Trump has also increased his verbal pressure.