Trump justifies his claims to Greenland with the advance of Russia and China. This is just a pretext, believes Arctic expert Michael Paul. He explains what the real reasons could be.
US President Donald Trump claims that he "needs" Greenland because the island is surrounded by Russian and Chinese ships. Arctic expert Michael Paul believes that this is just a pretext. According to him, it is mainly about the melting of the ice in the Arctic caused by climate change, which in some places has improved access to its natural resources and in others has worsened it.
Russia has always been present in the Arctic, the expert notes in an interview with ARD. Nothing much has changed in years, except that Russia is becoming more aggressive. The new player in the region is definitely China, which has been building icebreakers for some time to operate in the Arctic. This is a long-term strategy, which is confirmed by the fact that Beijing considers the Arctic Ocean to be part of the "Polar Silk Road".
China is the new player in the Arctic, but Greenland is not under immediate threat
China wants to be a world power, and that includes control over important sea routes. "In the 2030s and 2040s, the Arctic will play an increasingly important role in this regard and will represent a large percentage of the sea routes for global trade", the expert explained to ARD, adding that the Arctic Sea Route, best known as the Northern Sea Route, is also a backup option for China if problems arise in the South China Sea or in the Strait of Malacca in the event of a potential invasion of Taiwan. "For example, if the US military decides to block the Strait of Malacca in response, the Arctic will be the backup option for the supply of raw materials to China."
NATO has not paid much attention to the Arctic in recent years, because security in the region was the task of the individual member states of the Arctic Council, and they did not want NATO to deal with security issues in the Arctic. Canada, for example, has long been a brake in this regard, says Paul, emphasizing that this has changed after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine and due to the fact that the Russians have become increasingly aggressive, with their aggression directed directly at the Arctic. The expert explains that attention should also be paid to the fact that there is a difference between the American Arctic Ocean region, the European one, and the central one. These are completely separate geographical and geopolitical regions that are in different situations in terms of security. "Greenland, however, is not under immediate threat," Paul believes.
Natural resources, but in what timeframe?
The largest island in the world has been the subject of talks in Washington since the 19th century, notes Michael Paul. For Donald Trump, this is the biggest territorial deal he could make, and this is precisely his main motivation, the expert says. "In fact, security is not his main goal, since the Americans could easily just build more new military bases in Greenland with the consent of Nuuk and Copenhagen. That is not a problem at all. So the security argument is just a pretext." Suspicions remain that it is actually about natural resources, says Paul.
However, there is another case - even if it were about this, Trump cannot hope for a return on such an investment, even if he hopes that he can govern the United States for another term. According to Paul, it is much easier to bet on mining, for example, in Africa. Greenland is an island that will need more ports, new roads and a workforce to settle somewhere on the island - the mining industry in Greenland will have to prepare for a long time before it starts to pay dividends, the expert says.
"This would be a first-class violation of international law"
To effectively repel Washington's claims, America's European NATO partners must work to restore the defense capabilities of the 1970s and 1980s, Paul also says. "We have simply disarmed ourselves to a very great extent and, accordingly, we are not able to defend ourselves as we used to. In this sense, there is an unpleasant correlation between Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which we need US support to stop, and the new threats coming from Washington, which wants the territory of another NATO country for itself," Paul comments.
As for Trump's threats to annex Greenland, the expert also draws attention to something else that is important in the context of this potential development of events. "Annexing Greenland does not mean just seizing its territory, but also governing the Greenlanders and taking into account their way of life," says Paul. "This would be a first-class violation of international law and a severance of ties with one of the longest-standing partners of the United States, which categorically stood behind Washington during the American interventions in Afghanistan and Iraq."
Unfortunately, Donald Trump has made unpredictability one of his main principles, notes Michael Paul. Therefore, nothing is ruled out. The expert believes that now we need to watch how the situation in Venezuela will develop and how the US Congress will act in this regard and whether it will somehow intervene.