The nearly 40 days of heavy US bombing have not broken the Iranian regime, and the exchange of proposals for a diplomatic solution to the conflict has been fruitless. In the Persian Gulf, the US has found itself in an impasse.
US President Donald Trump has rejected Iran's offer of peace talks to end the war. On his Truth Social profile, he wrote: "I just read the response from the so-called "representatives" of Iran. I don't like it - completely unacceptable."
Iran's demands were conveyed to the US by Pakistan, which is acting as a mediator. This came after the US sent a two-stage proposal, including in its first phase a cessation of hostilities, and in the second - negotiations on controversial issues, such as Iran's nuclear program.
Which Iranian proposals are unacceptable to the US
Tehran's counter-proposal includes recognition of Iran's sovereignty over the blocked Strait of Hormuz, as well as compensation for war damages, Iranian state media reported.
Tehran is also demanding the release of frozen Iranian assets, as well as the lifting of sanctions. Iran is also demanding a cessation of fighting on all fronts, including in Lebanon, the Islamic Republic's state television reported. The messages about the proposal do not mention anything about the nuclear program, which the US defines as a "red line" for any negotiations. In his post on the social network Truth Social, Donald Trump did not specify which of Iran's proposals he found unacceptable.
Trump wanted to have resolved this issue before meeting with Xi
Despite his public outrage at the proposals to end the conflict sent by Tehran, the American president is unlikely to want to return to bombing and active warfare, commented the "New York Times". He had hoped to have resolved the conflict before he meets this week with Chinese President Xi Jinping. China is an ally of Iran.
The war in Iran led to a global energy crisis and diverted US military resources from Asia, recalls the "New York Times". It also largely depleted US ammunition stocks, which raised doubts among some Chinese analysts about the ability of the Americans to defend Taiwan, a close ally of Washington. Trump's latest comments suggest that the war appears far from over. Intermittent clashes in the region over the past week have underscored the fragility of the truce - a state that analysts describe as "neither war nor peace".
Is this checkmate for the United States?
The situation in which Washington finds itself at the moment is unique. It is difficult to remember a time when the United States suffered a complete defeat in a conflict - such a major setback in which the strategic or military loss cannot be repaired or ignored, writes the American publication "The Atlantic". 37 days of bombing have failed to break the Iranian regime, and the exchange of proposals for a diplomatic solution to the conflict also continues to be fruitless. Tehran seems to realize that this war demonstrates its enormous strategic advantage - control of the Strait of Hormuz.
The risk assessment that forced Trump to back down a month ago is still valid. Even if the US president follows through on his threat to destroy Iran's "civilization" with new bombings, Iran will still be able to launch many missiles and drones before its regime falls - if it falls at all, writes "The Atlantic". Just a few successful strikes could paralyze the region's oil and gas infrastructure for years, plunging the world and the United States into a prolonged economic crisis. Even if Trump wanted to bomb Iran as part of a withdrawal strategy to look tough and cover up his retreat, he cannot do so without risking this catastrophe. If this is not checkmate, it is at least close to it, commented journalist Robert Kagan in "The Atlantic".
In recent days, Trump has asked the US intelligence agencies to assess the consequences of simply declaring victory and withdrawing. Hoping for the collapse of the regime is not a particularly good strategy, especially when the regime has already survived repeated military and economic blows. It could fall tomorrow, in six months, or not fall at all. Trump does not have that much time to wait, as the price of oil rises to $150 or even $200 a barrel, inflation is rising, and global shortages of food and other goods are starting to be felt. The US president needs a faster solution.
The impasse in which the United States finds itself in the Persian Gulf will have wider global consequences. The whole world has witnessed how just a few weeks of war with a minor military power have depleted American weapons stocks to dangerously low levels, with no quick solution in sight, notes "The Atlantic". And this raises concerns about Xi Jinping's future plans for Taiwan or Vladimir Putin's for Europe. America's allies in East Asia and Europe should think about the resilience of the United States in the event of future conflicts, writes "The Atlantic".