Comment by Emilia Milcheva:
The presidential elections in the fall are a question of a million. Anyone who plays for victory, and not just for a decent performance, will need at least a million votes. And this means that two conditions must be met: a candidate larger than the parties, and support that goes beyond traditional alliances.
The stakes of the vote in four months, however, go far beyond the election of the next head of state. For Rumen Radev's majority, it will be a test of whether he will consolidate his political hegemony, winning the presidential institution six months after coming to power.
The presidential vote as a test for the democratic community
For the democratic community, the question is different: can it be a pro-European alternative in a country whose prime minister is the only one in the EU to block the 21st package of sanctions against Russia.
In a situation in which the opposition represented in the 52nd parliament is fragmented and the previous coalition partners "We continue the change" (PP) and "Democratic Bulgaria" (DB) are divided, the presidential vote will show whether they are capable of acting as a community. And it is not just about the PP and DB, but also about the many atomized participants on the right and in the democratic space. All these small political universes have so far failed to produce a majority.
None of them on their own has the resources to win. Together, the PP and DB received 408,846 votes in the last parliamentary elections, which is not even half of a million.
A favor or friendly fire
In Bulgarian politics, the names of presidential candidates are usually kept secret until the last minute, so as not to become targets. Therefore, the early promotion of the name of former caretaker Prime Minister Andrey Gyurov raises the question of whether this is a political favor or friendly fire.
A week after the April 19 elections, when Gyurov was still at the head of the government, the deputy chairman of the PP, Nikolay Denkov, announced that he was the "main name" that the party was considering for a presidential candidate. Two months later, DSB leader Atanas Atanasov announced on BNT that an initiative committee was meeting to nominate him. "He will be a candidate for himself and the initiative committee that will nominate him, and we must mobilize to support him," Atanasov said. Gyurov himself has so far neither confirmed nor denied that he will participate in the presidential race.
After Atanasov's words, there was no confirmation from either the PP or "Yes, Bulgaria". The PP recalled the agreement between the three parties and the so-called Forum for Democratic Action to nominate a single candidacy. From "Yes, Bulgaria" emphasized that the decision was made by Gyurov's team, and Atanasov's words were an expression of his personal opinion.
On the Bulgarian National Radio, PP-DB MP Velislav Velichkov compared the announcement of names to “throwing a fishing rod into a non-existent sea”. According to him, it is not the job of party leaders to announce candidates before they themselves have expressed their consent and how they intend to nominate them.
Why is he rushing
There are several possible explanations for why the DSB leader rushed, but inexperience is not among them. He has been in politics for almost three decades and knows very well that in a case like this, the greatest favor is silence.
Atanasov has previously spoken about the need to unite the democratic community around the candidates for president and vice president. Now he is talking about “a wider fan” from this community and the parties to stand "on the second line". This inevitably raises the question of whether such a formula does not leave the door open for GERB as well - a possibility that the PP and DB have already defined as unthinkable.
If the goal is indeed the widest possible support, political logic would dictate the opposite - discretion until the moment when agreement is reached in the widest possible circle. Because the early announcement of a name gives time for attacks, mobilization against it and generates dissatisfaction among those who expected the candidate to be elected through internal elections.
But Atanasov may not be the leader of DSB after the party's National Assembly on July 11, when several people will compete for the highest party post, including MEP Radan Kanev and MP Yordan Ivanov. So the DSB chairman can afford less tactical silence.
The early launch of a candidate is not a guarantee of failure in itself. Rumen Radev was nominated for his first term in mid-August 2016. The difference is that back then his candidacy was backed by a clear political decision at the BSP plenum and the candidate himself participated in the process. In the case of Andrey Gyurov, his name has been in the public domain since April, without him having announced whether he would participate in the race and without the main parties from the democratic community and the Forum for Democratic Action having announced a candidacy.
Who is still holding their cards
The remaining candidates will most likely be announced in September. It is not yet clear who Rumen Radev's majority will support. At first glance, Iliyana Yotova seems to be the natural choice, having inherited "Dondukov" 2 with Radev's premature departure and his election as prime minister. But speculation is already emerging that she may not be the candidate of “Progressive Bulgaria”.
DPS may nominate its own candidates to measure its electoral weight before the runoff and increase the price of its support for the second round.
GERB is still recovering from the hard landing in the last elections with the weakest result since its existence. That is why choosing Boyko Borisov is more difficult than usual - its own candidate carries the risk of another electoral failure, and the lack of a candidate would look like a retreat.
Borisov has already proposed several times to the PP and DB to unite around a common center-right candidate for president, but received a categorical refusal. Nevertheless, GERB is not giving up. On BNT, MP Vladislav Goranov said that GERB still does not have a clear concept of how to join the presidential race. According to him, it would be good to have talks between all those who claim to be center-right, to nominate a common candidate. But GERB is far from in a winning position, with prominent figures leaving the leadership such as Delyan Dobrev and Zhivko Todorov, and they are unlikely to be the last.
Is there a solution to the task?
For the presidential elections, GERB will look for the best way to get out, while MRF will trade support. Thus, the main contenders for the post will be the candidates of Radev and the democratic community.
And if for some the vote is a means of consolidating power, as long as they want it all, for others it will show whether, after all the divisions, the task of one million has a solution.