According to the data from the survey by “Levada-Center“ from August 2026, which the Russian authorities consider a “foreign agent“, 28% of Russians support the continuation of military operations in Ukraine, and 62% - the start of peace negotiations. In Moscow, these indicators are 49% and 40%, respectively.
When asked what should happen if peace is not achieved - to make concessions to Ukraine and the West or to intensify strikes against Ukraine - 56% of all respondents and 66% of Muscovites support the second option. 50% of all respondents and 64% of residents of the capital believe that the war is developing "very successfully" or "rather successfully" for Russia.
That is not how the mood in Moscow looked in March 2022. After the start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Muscovites' attitude towards the war was significantly more negative than the average for Russia.
In less than 5 years, Moscow has become the most pro-war region in Russia, if we believe sociologists. What made such a transformation possible and what consequences could this have?
Comfort, but not clear support for the government
On August 14, 2026, "Levada-Center" published another survey, revealing how Russians assess the political situation in the country. Overall, 70% of them define it as “tense“ or “critical and explosive“, while among Muscovites the share of those who think so is 17% lower.
For sociologist Anna Kuleshova, these data do not indicate support for the authorities' course, but are a sign of adaptation: “In Moscow, a lot of money has been invested in infrastructure so that citizens feel calm and happy in the renewed capital; losses per capita in Moscow and St. Petersburg, according to independent calculations, are lower than in most other regions. In this context, it is more logical to assume that there is neither denial nor full support from the authorities. Rather, respondents stated that for them personally, the situation seems stable and calm“, she explains.
Kuleshova recalls that in personal conversations, people describe the actions of the authorities “with approximately the same terminology as they would talk about the climatic conditions, which they cannot influence and against which it is very difficult to protest“.
Politician Andrei Pivovarov told the DW that some residents of the Russian capital want an end to the war, but not in the way that anti-war people want it. Those who have been suffering various deprivations for several years are more in favor of the authorities finishing what they started: not returning Crimea and Donbass, but "acquiring them," says Pivovarov.
Anna Kuleshova attributes these attitudes to the influence of propaganda: "These people repeat what they hear on television, but they do not necessarily agree internally."
The impact of migration to and from Moscow
Anna Kuleshova also notes the effect of the departure of some opposition-minded Muscovites abroad. “I think the authorities deliberately allowed educated and active people to leave Moscow. At the beginning (2022 - ed. note) the people who, in the words of the authorities, were "rocking the boat" were given the opportunity to leave, the sociologist recalls, adding that many activists, scientists and people connected with politics took advantage of this at the time.
Capitals and megacities often become spaces where protest potential is concentrated. Therefore, "it is not profitable for the authorities for the war or any problems to be felt precisely in Moscow," she adds. For her, those who left with the first wave can be defined as the "noisy minority."
In addition, she notes that the anti-war residents who left Moscow "were partially replaced by those who became beneficiaries of the war." The expert believes that the authorities in the Russian Federation have made it much more profitable for many Russians to support the war and the current regime than if they had not supported it.
According to her, many Russians tend to downplay the losses, and the authorities skillfully take advantage of this. That is why the support that sociologists report is directed not at the military actions as such, but at ensuring that life does not become worse than it is now, she explains.
Andrei Pivovarov agrees that the Russian capital is home to “a significant part of those who benefit from the war“ – those who do not receive a call to the front, but new orders, the opportunity to trade drones or profit from sending people to war.
Will the mood of Muscovites affect the State Duma elections
The exclusion of the anti-war party “Yabloko“ from the elections caused a wide public resonance. The rating of “United Russia“ in the capital Moscow is meanwhile estimated by both “Russian Field“ and “Levada-Center“ at around 30 percent among all respondents.
Anna Kuleshova believes that many Muscovites may refrain from a protest vote, as they are afraid that they may be sanctioned in some way. “Therefore, they prefer to do nothing, i.e. not to vote in protest and wait for everything to change naturally“. In addition, many people perceive electronic voting as not anonymous and traceable, she notes.
Andrey Pivovarov suggests that the official voting results, which the authorities will announce, will show a convincing victory for “United Russia“ in Moscow. And the exclusion of “Yabloko“ from the elections will only reduce voter turnout and probably bring additional votes to the party.
Author: Sofia Serova