It is entirely possible that Russia will attack Georgia this summer. Because Putin likes to invade other countries during the Olympics. And in Georgia, a repetition of what happened in Ukraine in 2014 is already underway. By Evgeny Dainov.
Another Olympics is approaching and the usual question is in Vladimir Putin's head: Who should he attack this time, while the world is focused on the competitions in Paris?
During the 2008 Summer Olympics, the Russian army invaded Georgia. Shortly after the 2014 Winter Olympics, the Moscow boot stepped into Eastern Ukraine and Crimea. And immediately after the end of the 2022 Winter Olympics, the Russian army launched a full-scale war with the aim of the final destruction of Ukraine and the Ukrainian nation.
Who's next in the summer of 2024?
It is unlikely to be a member of NATO, which for now excludes the Baltic Republics, Poland, Romania and Bulgaria. Armenia is in a coma and there is no need to force things there. It could be taken by some former Soviet republic ending in -stan, but that's unlikely, given that Turkey is behind most, and Kazakhstan is China.
It seems that the target will be Georgia this time as well. There is already a repetition of the "Yanukovych" scenario implemented in Ukraine in the winter of 2014.
Let's remember. In 2010, Ukraine signed an agreement with the EU for early membership. However, when it came to the final signing of the start of negotiations, on November 21, 2013, the pro-Russian President Yanukovych announced that he would not sign anything of the sort. On the contrary, he would take steps to be included in the Eurasian Union, which was then created under the auspices of Moscow. What followed was a nationwide Ukrainian uprising, which became known as Euromaidan. Yanukovych fled to Russia, and at the end of April 2014, "green men" invaded Ukraine. - Russian military units without identification marks. The Winter Olympics in Sochi ended on February 23.
What is characteristic of this situation is the reckless behavior of Yanukovych, who all the while acts with a purposeful and increasing arrogance, the aim of which is to provoke an uprising for him to put down. And thus cut off the European aspiration of the Ukrainians for one 10-15 years. In the end, the Ukrainians proved to be stronger, but gave more than 100 victims.
How Georgia looks like Ukraine
Exactly the same scenario is unfolding right now in Georgia. The country's ambition to become a member of the EU is so strong that it is written into the Constitution; over 80 percent of Georgians support this membership. However, the country is run by a Russian agency that has no intention of following the course towards Europe. On the contrary, the ambition - as under Yanukovych - is for Georgia to regain its status as a vassal of Moscow.
This time, the provocation does not come from a direct turn towards the Eurasian Union, but from the introduction of a Law on Foreign Agents in the parliament. It is a copy of that Russian legislation that is used to crush any dissent.
Initially, the government was frightened by the protests and withdrew the law. However, he subsequently re-imported it, in a more radical version - replacing the term "foreign agent" with "agent of a foreign country". Such "agents" are all organizations, mainly NGOs and media, that receive Western funding, incl. from the EU pre-accession funds. In this way, the authorities in Georgia de facto declare the EU a collection of "foreign countries". It is obvious that the step to Putin's formulation "unfriendly countries" it's not big at all.
Three weeks of protests follow in the capital Tbilisi. People refuse to leave the streets and squares while the parliamentarians continue to vote their law (in Georgia they have not two but three votes for each law). The situation is constantly escalating because of the actions and rhetoric of the authorities. The goal is, obviously, as with Yanukovych: to provoke an uprising that will be crushed.
However, Putin is unlikely to leave things in the hands of his local agents this time. However, in 2014, Yanukovych failed to deal with the Ukrainians and, despite the subsequent Russian invasion, the country sharply "westernized". This time, Putin is likely to play it safe. The moment the situation in Georgia blows up, he will be able to bring in his army, most likely "responding" (as in the case of Hungary in 1956 and Czechoslovakia in 1968) of "the government's request for fraternal aid against foreign agents and Western provocations".
This is the likely scenario. Knowing Putin's temper, it is entirely possible. It is so possible that in fact the important question is: will Putin have the patience to wait for the Olympics in Paris, which do not start until July 26?
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This comment expresses the personal opinion of the author and may not coincide with the positions of the Bulgarian editorial office and of DV as a whole.