Russia will redeploy its forces to NATO's eastern flank if there is a peace deal in Ukraine, the Finnish prime minister has warned, calling on Europe to spend more on defence in frontline countries, the Financial Times (FT) quoted him as saying.
Peteri Orpo called on the rest of the EU to show solidarity with eastern flank countries that are dramatically increasing their defence spending. They are Ukraine's leading financial backers in terms of GDP, even as many of their economies suffer.
"We know that when there is peace in Ukraine, Russia is still the threat. "It is obvious that they will move their military forces close to our border and close to the Baltic border," Orpo told the Financial Times. "It is clear that we need financial support [from Brussels]."
Orpo will host the first Eastern Flank summit of eight countries that share a sea or land border with Russia and Belarus later today.
The countries will try to adopt common military capabilities in areas such as air defense, drones and ground forces. They also want to discuss how to move weapons and troops across the continent.
Several NATO countries have warned that Russia will be ready for a serious confrontation with the Western military alliance within three to five years of the cessation of hostilities in Ukraine.
Estonia, Lithuania and Poland are on track to spend more than 5% of their GDP on defense next year - well above US President Donald Trump's spending target - with other frontline countries also increasing their military spending.
Orpo said it was important for Europe to be ready to defend itself as the US begins to withdraw from the continent. "We know that the US will reduce its support and participation in defense in Europe because it has many other security concerns."
Finland is one of the few countries in Europe that has not lowered its guard against Russia, maintaining an impressive preparation program, including bomb shelters and huge stocks of critical materials, as well as training young people.
But the country has also been hit by more than a decade of economic recession, which has forced the government to cut public spending as its debt grows.
"Our economy is in a very bad shape at the moment. This is due to the threat from Russia. "The atmosphere in Finland is very difficult," Orpo said.
He said the eastern flank countries were interested not only in 1.5 billion euros of unused European funds for military projects, but also in a large part of the roughly 130 billion euros the EU has earmarked for defense in its next budget period.
His message reflected concerns among some frontline countries that a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine could lead to a relaxation of tensions by some countries further from the frontline who believe the threat has receded.
Orpo acknowledged that Europe faces an "important week" to show it is good not only at negotiating but also at taking action on peace in Ukraine, as EU leaders meet for a crucial summit on Thursday that could decide whether Ukraine goes bankrupt. The bloc will discuss overcoming Belgian resistance to frozen Russian assets to be used to finance Kiev and a trade deal with Latin American countries.
Orpo said European leaders - led by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz - had worked hard to find a solution to Belgium's problem. "Now is the time to make a decision," he said.
When asked what would happen if the EU summit on Thursday and Friday ended without financial support for Ukraine, he said: "I don't want to think about it. Because we have no other options."