Canada fears it could become the next "target" of US President Donald Trump after his high-profile operation in Venezuela and recent threats against Greenland, Bloomberg reports.
Some experts do not rule out the possibility of "military coercion" by the US. But global security expert Thomas Homer-Dixon stressed that any attempt at pressure from Washington would be “extremely costly“.
Former Canadian government security and border advisor Wesley Work called Trump's actions on Venezuela and Greenland “the latest wake-up call for Canada, highlighting the reality that the United States is no longer the country it once was“.
“I think a lot of officials in Ottawa just find it hard to believe that we are in this situation, regardless of the evidence,“ he said.
Most analysts doubt that the US military would launch a military invasion of Canada. Trump, however, could resort to damaging the Canadian economy “to satisfy his whims“. It is noted that Trump's actions in Venezuela demonstrate his willingness to take reckless steps to dominate the Western Hemisphere.
The media emphasizes that the Canadian armed forces are unprepared for a more hostile world. Their regular and main reserve forces number less than 100,000 personnel.
It is known that the Canadian government plans to increase the size of the army and invest in weapons, but these measures will only have an effect over time.
There are also economic risks. About 70% of all Canadian exports go to the United States. And the threat of revoking the benefits of the USMCA (the Free Trade Agreement between the United States, Mexico and Canada) or imposing new tariffs by the Trump administration could hit the country extremely hard. To reduce its dependence on the United States, Canada is trying to diversify its trade, including to Asia.
But Carleton University associate professor Philippe Lagasse believes that the more concessions Canada makes to maintain access to the American market, the greater the risk of a gradual loss of real sovereignty, even if it remains formally intact.