This week, the Russian Federation's full-scale war against Ukraine passed an important symbolic milestone: 1,418 days. That's how many days the USSR fought against Nazi Germany and achieved a decisive victory. The Russo-Ukrainian war is far from over militarily, but in any case it will not bring Russia the desired victory, Forbes writes.
The author notes that after four years of full-scale war, Russia controls only about 20% of the territory of Ukraine, and today Russian troops are further from Kiev than they were at the beginning of the invasion.
Unlike Western countries, where protracted wars alternated with short-term conflicts, Russia has practically no experience with “short and victorious wars“. Those that were short almost never ended in a decisive victory for the Russian state, the author notes, citing several examples from Russian history.
Protracted wars of attrition have sometimes been victorious for Russia, and the Russian state as a whole is accustomed to waging wars of attrition. But this does not always guarantee victory for Russia. However, military defeats have always had serious consequences for its political governance.
In this context, the author mentions the humiliating defeat by Japan in 1905, the catastrophe of World War I, and the failure of the Afghan blitzkrieg.
The author of the article does not believe that the war in Ukraine could provoke a further collapse of Russia, as after World War I or the Afghan war, or at least overthrow the Putin regime. But the losses in this war are already too great and do not justify the possible benefits.
„A victory, which may remain imperceptible, would only mean the conquest of a certain territory that currently lies in ruins. This would be a Pyrrhic victory at best. When the dust finally settles, Russia will be significantly weaker, with depleted arsenals and a ruined reputation. The only question is when this will finally happen,“ the journalist concludes.
The Russians have managed to increase the production of “Shahed“ missiles in sufficient quantities to constantly penetrate Ukrainian air defenses and attack critical utility infrastructure in the rear.
However, this may soon change, as Ukraine is rapidly increasing the production of interceptor drones, Forbes reports.
The author of the publication notes that the deployment of “Shahed“ missiles has increased from 2,000 per month in December 2024 to over 5,000 in December 2025. This intensity of attacks is quickly exhausting Ukraine's air defenses, which rely heavily on scarce anti-aircraft missiles even to counter "Shahed" missiles.
At the same time, the effectiveness of mobile fire teams is limited by their short interception range. That is why Ukraine is trying to increase the production of interceptor drones, which are cheaper than missiles and have a greater range than ground fire teams.
According to Forbes, several types of such drones are currently being produced in Ukraine (Sting, Surveyor/Merops, Techno-Taras, Hunter, Salute, Bayonet, and others).