The United States and its European partners are in the final stages of drafting a package of security guarantees and economic support for Ukraine. The goal is to both deter future Russian aggression and lay the foundations for the recovery of the Ukrainian economy after the war, analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) note, News.bg reports.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on January 25 that the bilateral document between Kiev and Washington on American security guarantees is fully ready. According to him, Ukraine expects the US to set a date and place for the signing. The agreement will then be submitted for ratification to both the Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada and the US Congress.
Zelensky stressed that Europe will also provide additional guarantees, among which the prospect of Ukraine's membership in the European Union occupies a key place. He defined EU membership as a “guarantee of economic security“ and stated that Kiev aims to join the community in 2027.
According to ISW, long-term economic recovery, including integration into the European market, is crucial for Ukraine's stability and prosperity. At the same time, analysts emphasize that these efforts cannot replace solid military and political security guarantees that would deter new Russian actions - a role that is expected to be taken by the US and the allied coalition.
These guarantees are taking shape within the framework of the peace process initiated by US President Donald Trump in recent weeks. According to ISW, the Kremlin is trying to undermine this process and persuade Washington to accept Russian conditions.
Moscow continues to use the uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the US-Russia summit in Alaska in August 2025 to portray Ukraine as a country unwilling to compromise. The lead Russian negotiator Kirill Dmitriev said on January 26 that it was Zelensky who was slowing down the peace process by refusing territorial concessions.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, for his part, described the territorial issue as "fundamental" for Russia and said that no significant results should be expected from the recent trilateral talks between Ukraine, Russia and the US in Abu Dhabi. The Kremlin has long demanded that Kiev give up parts of the Donetsk region, including territories that Russian forces do not yet control.
The ISW analysis indicates that even if the current pace of the offensive continues, the Russian army could complete the capture of the Donetsk region by the summer of 2027 at the earliest. Meanwhile, Ukraine has already made a number of concessions in the framework of the US-led negotiations, including steps to change the legislation in order to hold elections during martial law.
However, the Kremlin continues to blame Kiev for the delay in the peace process, while Russia itself has not shown a willingness to compromise on its initial military goals. Moscow has also used the issue of nuclear arms control as a tool to pressure Washington. Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev said that Russia is ready to informally comply with the terms of the New START treaty for another year after its expiration in February 2026, but only if the United States does the same.
On the military front, ISW reports a new threat - Russian forces are increasingly using the Starlink satellite system to increase the range of BM-35 attack drones. Ukrainian drone expert Serhiy Beskrestnov reported that for the first time such a drone was used to strike the city of Dnieper, dozens of kilometers from the front line. This emphasizes Ukraine's urgent need for additional air defense systems, since electronic warfare means are not enough against such a threat.
At the same time, the economic consequences of the war are increasingly being transferred to the Russian population. According to independent Russian media, the prices of basic goods and services have been rising sharply since the beginning of 2026, following a VAT increase signed by President Vladimir Putin. Citizens in various regions have already reported a significant increase in food prices, further exacerbating domestic tensions in the country.