The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz as a result of the war in the Middle East is forcing oil-producing countries in the region to look for alternative export routes, and consumer countries - new sources of supply, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the shipping tracking company “Kpler“ (Kpler), quoted by Agence France-Presse, writes BTA.
The Strait of Hormuz, which connects the Persian Gulf to international markets, used to carry about 20 million barrels a day, or about 20 percent of global oil consumption, before the conflict.
In its monthly report, the IEA noted that “Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates could redirect some of their production to terminals outside the Persian Gulf“, thus partially compensating for the disruption of flows through the strait. “Kpler“ analysts, however, stressed that these alternative routes “help, but remain insufficient“.
Approximately 20 million barrels a day, or 20 percent of global oil consumption, usually pass through the strait, mainly to China, India, South Korea and Japan. According to the IEA, about 350 tankers, loaded or empty, are currently blocked, and Iran identifies those owned by the United States and its allies as “legitimate targets”. At least 80 ships have managed to cross the strait since the start of the war.
Partial bypasses
In a study published on March 9, “Standard Chartered Bank“ indicated that Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and Iraq export almost all of their crude oil through the strait, while Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates “have the option of partial bypass via pipelines“.
In Saudi Arabia, this is done through the pipeline connecting Abqaiq, near the Persian Gulf, to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea. On March 9, Riyadh reported record daily exports from its western ports - of 5.9 million barrels per day compared to an average of 1.7 in 2025, with the CEO of “Saudi Aramco“ (Saudi Aramco) Amin Nasser said the pipeline would reach its full capacity of 7 million barrels per day “in the coming days.”
For its part, the UAE transports crude oil through the port of Fujairah in the Gulf of Oman to avoid the Strait of Hormuz, but the volumes are limited - usually 1.5 million barrels per day, with the possibility of increasing to 1.8 million barrels.
The two countries’ combined additional transport capacity amounts to about 5.5 million barrels per day, the IEA said.
“Despite record loads in Yanbu and Fujairah, actual exports from the Middle East are still only about a third of their normal level,”Kpler said, with Iranian drone and missile attacks posing a constant risk to these facilities.
Other routes are also possible, such as the pipeline between Iraq and Turkey through the autonomous region of Iraqi Kurdistan, but these are currently out of service due to attacks on oil fields.
Capacities are also limited in Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan, and the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, which ends in Turkey, was also targeted by Iran at the beginning of the conflict.
Long distances and limited potential
Russian oil exports, whose infrastructure is regularly targeted by Ukrainian attacks, remain insufficient despite a partial recovery with US support.
“While demand for Russian oil may increase due to serious disruptions to supplies from the Middle East, our forecasts for the country remain unchanged for now - with average production of 9.3 million barrels per day for the rest of 2026,“ reports IEA.
Under these conditions, “Kpler“ predicts that “Asian refiners should increase their purchases of long-haul cargoes from the Atlantic basin“, that is, from the United States, West Africa and Latin America, “as a rapid resumption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz does not seem likely“. However, these routes are longer, require more ships, and the global tanker market is already overcrowded.
Moreover, additional capacity is still limited to a few hundred thousand additional barrels per day.
The war in the Middle East is significantly exacerbating the situation, reports the consulting company “Rystad Energy“. Before the war, “we expected an average Brent price of $60 per barrel in 2026, with the market facing a significant surplus“, while after February 28, our estimate fluctuated between $80 and $120 per barrel.