In 2026, the likelihood that Russian forces will succeed in capturing the Ukrainian fortified belt in Donbas remains low. However, there are indications that Moscow has already launched a spring-summer offensive, with a significant increase in mechanized and motorized attacks on various sections of the front between March 17 and 21. In parallel, intensive strikes have been recorded, as well as the movement of heavy equipment and military units along the line of battle, cited by News.bg.
This is according to an analysis by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
The so-called “Fortress Belt“ of Ukraine is a system of four large and well-fortified cities in Donetsk Oblast, which before the war had a total population of over 380,000 people. They are located along the H-20 highway between Kostyantynivka and Slavyansk and form a key defensive line.
Russia has already made attempts to capture this area in 2014 and 2022, but without success. According to the analysis, even under current conditions, a possible operation to capture it would turn into a protracted campaign, requiring years and associated with significant human and material losses.
In addition, Russian forces have so far not demonstrated the ability to quickly surround and capture large cities of this scale. Pokrovsk is cited as an example - a significantly smaller city, the capture of which took almost two years.
Meanwhile, Russian officials are preparing public attitudes for slow progress and a high cost of hostilities. The chairman of the State Duma defense committee, Andrei Kartapolov, said on March 26 that it was too early to talk about a "triumphal spring offensive." He stressed that the fighting was heavy, with the situation in Konstantinovka remaining particularly complicated due to the size of the city and the fortifications on the Ukrainian side.
According to the analysis, the Kremlin is aware that the capture of the "Fortress Belt" is not guaranteed, which is why it is demanding that Ukraine cede territories from the Donetsk region that are not currently under Russian control. Such a scenario would allow Russia to reduce its losses and improve its position in possible future military actions.
At the same time, Ukrainian forces continue to achieve successes in the southern parts of the country, exerting both operational and strategic pressure on Russian positions on the eve of the offensive.
Additional impact on Russia is also being exerted by drone strikes, as well as actions by Western countries to detain Russian oil tankers, which negatively affect oil export revenues.
On the battlefield, Ukrainian forces are making progress in the areas of Aleksandrovka, the western part of Zaporizhia Oblast, and the northern part of Kharkiv Oblast. For their part, Russian units are advancing towards Slavyansk, Pokrovsk and Kupyansk.
Ukraine is also continuing its campaign of long-range strikes against Russian oil infrastructure in the Baltic Sea region, while Russian forces have launched a total of 153 drones into Ukrainian territory.