Hungary votes. Awaiting the results, the ARD lists four possible scenarios for the country after the elections.
Two-thirds of the seats in the parliament in Budapest ensure absolute power. This is exactly the kind of victory that Viktor Orbán's "Fidesz" party won in the 2010 elections, which then changed the country according to its own ideas. Since then, it has become very difficult for the opposition to win elections, writes the German public media ARD.
Hungary is divided into 106 single-member constituencies, each of which provides one direct mandate. Single-member constituencies are won with a relative majority on the "winner takes all" principle. This is how 106 of the total 199 seats in parliament are allocated. The remaining 93 seats are determined by proportional distribution of votes for national party lists.
During Viktor Orbán's rule, single-member constituencies were redrawn so that their importance in rural areas - often favorable to "Fidesz" - increased. In cities, where reservations towards the government are greater, their importance decreased accordingly, the publication points out.
First scenario: "Fidesz" wins
If "Fidesz" wins the elections again this time, with a simple majority, the party could continue to govern, preserving the status quo. If it achieves a convincing victory with a two-thirds majority, Orbán's party will be able to change the Constitution in its favor.
However, if this does not happen, there are three other options.
Second scenario: "Tisza" wins with a simple majority
At first glance, this would be a success for Magyar. But Viktor Orbán could also take advantage of such an electoral victory - for example, by presenting his electoral defeat as proof that he is not irremovable, i.e. that he is not an autocrat, and thus respond to his critics.
If "Tisza" wins with a simple majority, she may be able to improve healthcare or education. But overall, a "Tisza" government with a simple majority will be rather weak. "Fidesz" Orban's party will probably try to obstruct or block any project by "Tisza", writes ARD.
Without a two-thirds majority, "Tisza" would not be able to push through other key reforms, such as some necessary changes to the Constitution, the composition of the courts, the laws on freedom of the press and other important aspects of the rule of law. Viktor Orban could temporarily step down, oversee the work of a probably not very effective government, and return in four years - perhaps even stronger.
Scenario Three: "Tisza" wins with a two-thirds majority
This is the only configuration that Orban sees as "truly critical for Hungary". With such an election victory, "Tisza" would be able to implement a large part of its promises.
The interesting question is how convincing this victory with an absolute majority for "Tisza" will be: the more fragile this majority is, the more likely Orbán will try to challenge the result in court, harnessing the entire legal apparatus for this purpose. In addition, it is very likely that he will call on "Fidesz" supporters to demonstrations to create pressure from the streets - exactly according to his own motto that "Fidesz" is the homeland, and the homeland cannot be in opposition".
Fourth scenario: a tie
If the forecasts are confirmed that the far-right party "Mi Hazank" ("Our Homeland") will have nine seats in parliament, and the remaining 190 seats are divided equally between "Tisza" and "Fidesz", each of them will end up with 95 deputies. Then it will depend on "Mi Hazank" who will govern.
However, this party is much closer to "Fidesz" and will probably help Orban retain his power. However, this would also mean a certain dependence, and hence a potential risk for him. Because the desired scenario for Viktor Orban is probably to continue to govern alone, i.e. not to depend on coalition partners.
At the same time, for "Mi Hazank" in the long run, it will be very important to take votes away from "Fidesz", ARD also points out.