If there were elections in Germany today, the "Alternative for Germany" would be the first force. The party, which is partly recognized as far-right, is benefiting from the record low approval rating for Chancellor Friedrich Merz.
When the coalition between the conservative parties CDU/CSU and the Social Democrats (SPD) took office on May 6, 2025, the expectations for the federal government were enormous. It was the Federal Chancellor and leader of the CDU, Friedrich Merz, who set the bar extremely high.
The economic recovery was to be the highest priority. Within a few months, citizens should feel that Germany is moving forward, the chancellor promised in her first government statement and promised major reforms as early as the fall.
Citizens are disappointed
After a year in office, the chancellor must admit with regret that a country like Germany cannot be put on a different path in just a few months. The governing coalition between conservatives and social democrats is prone to conflicts and, due to the prolonged search for compromises, is working much more slowly than expected. The economy is not gaining momentum.
In the country, disappointment with the government's work is palpable. As many as 86 percent of Germans are dissatisfied. This is clear from the latest survey commissioned by the German public broadcaster ARD. It was conducted by the infratest dimap Institute among 1,303 Germans eligible to vote between May 4 and 6, 2026. The high level of dissatisfaction is a record. Never before has a federal government received such a negative assessment after one year in power. These surveys have been conducted since 1997.
Many projects, many laws
The government's statistics do not look bad. The Chancellor and his ministers held 41 meetings, at which they initiated 557 initiatives. 175 of them are bills - mainly in the areas of migration, economy and energy, security and defense, labor and social issues. But given the poor economic situation in which Germany still finds itself, this is clearly not enough for the citizens.
However, the criticism does not only apply to substantive work. Voters give low marks to both communication with citizens and cooperation within the government.
Today, "Alternative for Germany" would win
Only 44 percent of those surveyed believe that the coalition should remain in power until the next regular Bundestag elections in 2029. The coalition's supporters include only voters of the ruling parties and the Greens. But what would happen if new elections were held now? According to the latest survey, the CDU/CSU and the SPD would not achieve a majority. For the first time, the first political force would be the right-wing, partly extremist "Alternative for Germany" (AfD) - with 27 percent support, it reached a new record.
The CDU lost two percentage points compared to April and fell to 24 percent. The SPD remained at 12 percent and the Left at 10 percent, while the Greens performed slightly better than before - 15 percent (+1). The Free Democrats received 4% (+1), while Sarah Wagenknecht's Alliance only received 3% - neither party would enter the Bundestag.
The results of the "Alternative for Germany" in the eastern German state of Saxony-Anhalt are even higher. There will be elections for a new state parliament in September. According to the infratest dimap survey, the AfD would currently receive 41% of the vote there. The ruling CDU is far behind with 26%.
Will the government be able to turn the tide?
Chancellor Merz sees no alternative to a coalition with the Social Democrats and wants to continue governing together with them. After a bill on healthcare reform was presented in April, the main guidelines for pension reform must be discussed before the summer break. A major income tax reform is due to be drafted by the end of the year, primarily to ease the burden on low- and middle-income earners. However, no solution has yet emerged for its financing. The Social Democrats are pushing for higher taxes for the rich, something the CDU has so far rejected.
If we ask citizens, they would say that the economy, social issues and migration should remain priority topics. However, according to the survey, they do not believe that the coalition can achieve much in these areas.
While in June 2025 almost half of those surveyed believed that the CDU/CSU and the SPD would be able to boost the economy, their number has now fallen to less than half. Around a third then thought that the government would provide greater social security, and now their share has fallen to less than a quarter. Last summer, around 40% expected effective management of migration, and now they are around 30%.
Management in an emergency
In his interviews given on the occasion of the first anniversary of the government taking office, Friedrich Merz points out that no chancellor before him has had to deal with such difficult conditions as he himself. The world is in a historical emergency against a backdrop of global crises and wars. However, citizens are unwilling to accept the difficult conditions as an excuse for the government: 60% of them consider the government's actions in the current crisis situation to be inadequate.
Only 16 percent of respondents are "rather satisfied" with Friedrich Merz, the lowest figure for a chancellor in the survey commissioned by the ARD. Eight out of ten people criticize his way of communicating, three out of four doubt that he can lead the country successfully through the crisis, and seven out of ten respondents question his suitability for the position. Only among supporters of the CDU/CSU alliance does Chancellor Merz achieve better results.