Amid high tensions, Russia prepares to mark its most important secular holiday tomorrow, with security concerns over the war with Ukraine and signs of domestic discontent casting a shadow over the annual celebrations in Moscow's Red Square.
A unilateral ceasefire in Ukraine announced by Russia for today and tomorrow quickly collapsed. Moscow and Kiev have blamed each other for the ongoing fighting, just as they did earlier this week when a unilateral ceasefire declared by Ukraine itself also quickly collapsed.
The accusations reflect a deep-rooted lack of trust between the two countries for more than four years, with Russia attacking its neighbor. This has hampered US-led diplomatic efforts to find a peaceful solution.
Ukraine’s new drone and missile technology has helped it launch frequent and precise strikes deep inside Russian territory in recent months, particularly on major oil refineries.
Meanwhile, discontent with some of the Kremlin’s military policies has focused attention on Russian President Vladimir Putin, who is due to deliver a speech on Victory Day tomorrow. The holiday marks the victory over Nazi Germany 81 years ago in World War II and has in the past been a time of celebration and national enthusiasm, as well as a show of Russia's military might.
This year, however, is different.
The Russian Defense Ministry said today that its forces in Ukraine "have completely ceased combat operations and remain in their previous lines and positions." since midnight, when Putin's unilateral ceasefire came into effect. However, the ministry accused Ukrainian forces of continuing to strike Russian positions and civilian infrastructure in the border areas of Belgorod and Kursk regions. According to the ministry, after midnight, Russian air defenses shot down 390 Ukrainian drones and six long-range "Neptune" guided missiles aimed at Russia. A Ukrainian drone strike hit the administrative building of the Southern Directorate of the Russian Air Navigation Agency in Rostov-on-Don, forcing 13 airports in the south of the country to suspend operations, the Russian Transport Ministry said. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky gave a different version of events. Russian forces continued to attack the front line overnight, he said, while Ukrainian air defense forces shot down 56 Russian drones.
"All this clearly shows that there is no even a symbolic attempt on the part of the Russian side to cease fire on the front line," Zelensky said.
He also said today that another Ukrainian strike with long-range weapons had been carried out against a Russian oil sector facility, this time in the Yaroslavl region, more than 700 kilometers from the border. Zelensky did not specify when the attack took place.
Russian officials have repeatedly warned that Moscow will take decisive action, including a potential massive attack on Kiev, if Ukrainian attacks disrupt official events scheduled for tomorrow.
"We have focused our attention on the possibility of retaliatory measures," Russian presidential adviser Yuri Ushakov told reporters yesterday.
The Russian Foreign Ministry recommended that foreign embassies and international organizations in Kiev evacuate their offices in case such an attack does take place, and the Defense Ministry called on civilians to evacuate as well.
Meanwhile, Zelensky expressed surprise that foreign dignitaries would visit Moscow for the celebrations.
The Russian capital is expected to host Malaysia's King Ibrahim Sultan Iskandar, Laos' President Thongloun Sisoulith, and Belarus' authoritarian leader Alexander Lukashenko. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, whose country is a member of the European Union, is scheduled to meet with Putin and lay flowers at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier just outside the Kremlin walls, but will not attend the parade on Red Square.
Putin, who has ruled Russia for more than 25 years, has used the issue of the Soviet Union's victory in World War II to rally support for himself and the war in Ukraine, as well as to demonstrate Russia's global influence. It was therefore surprising that the traditional parade, for the first time in almost two decades, will be held without tanks, missiles and other military equipment, with the exception of military aircraft in the traditional air parade. Officials explained the decision by the "current operational situation", without giving details.
The larger and better-equipped Russian army is engaged in a slow and heavy offensive in Ukraine. The invasion in February 2022 was supposed to lead to a quick victory for Russia.
Ukrainian strikes deep into Russian territory have unnerved the Kremlin. The attacks have targeted Russian oil production, as well as manufacturing plants and military warehouses.
Some Russians are unhappy with internet censorship and government control over online activities, including the blocking of the popular messaging app Telegram.
All mobile internet and text messaging services will be restricted in Moscow tomorrow, the Ministry of Digital Development, Communications and Mass Media said, adding that the drastic measures are aimed at ensuring public safety.
The restrictions will apply to sites on the Russian government's "white list" - a group of state-approved online services that remain accessible during the country's increasingly frequent internet outages. Home internet and Wi-Fi will not be affected, authorities said.