The US and Iran have reached an agreement for an "immediate and permanent cessation of hostilities on all fronts", the Pakistani foreign minister said on Sunday. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. The signing is scheduled for Friday, June 19, in Switzerland, and the deal also includes an end to hostilities in Lebanon. This includes the nearly four-month war between the two sides, which began on February 28 with the assassination of Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
For consumers - here and around the world, the news comes as a direct reminder of the price already paid for the conflict: more expensive fuel, higher inflation and more expensive loans, already a fact and It will take months, no matter how quickly the document is signed in Geneva.
What has happened in the last four months
The attack of February 28 affected the military and political leadership of Iran and triggered a chain reaction: Tehran closed the Ormuz Stream and directed ballistic missiles and drones at energy infrastructure in region.
The strait carries about 20% of the world's seaborne oil traffic, as well as a significant amount of LNG, cargo and a number of other commodities on which global supply chains depend.
The result - record high oil and gas prices across the board, which are being passed directly onto fuel and steam bills across Europe. Not only that, but also enormous pressure on agricultural producers.
What will you feel at the gas station and at home?
If you ask about the next few weeks - almost nothing.
The agreement provides for the immediate and unhindered opening of the Ormyzka flow immediately after signing. In theory, this means a drop in the price of oil - the markets already react with a decrease at the first news of an imminent deal.
In practice, however, lower wholesale prices reach gas stations and gas bills with a delay of several weeks. Therefore, expect a gradual, not sharp, reduction in price - and only after the pipeline actually starts operating with normal traffic.
And according to many experts, this could take months due to the many waiting ships, the sea minefields and the infrastructure damaged by the strikes.
As we well know, without a reduction in fuel prices, it is difficult to expect favorable development in other goods and services as well. And also the wholesale price hike is often realized in the retail market at a loss...
ECB has already cut interest rates
Against the backdrop of sharply rising oil prices and shrinking price control buffers, as well as the difficult situation with gas supplies in some markets, economists are drawing a gloomy picture picture.
There are rumors of a return to stagflation in the summer, and the European Central Bank raised its main interest rate from 2% to 2.25% for the first time since 2023 - with other institutions expected to do the same in an attempt to control inflation.
The ECB's decision has a direct effect on the formulas by which many banks determine interest rates on its various credit products. This is unlikely to change overnight, as the inflationary causes for it will not simply disappear with the end of the war.
The ECB is already forecasting inflation of around 3% this year, above its 2% target, and the decision to raise interest rates will not be reversed just because the war is looming. Tightening monetary policy is the last thing the eurozone economy needs, which is already experiencing a slowdown, and cheaper credit will increase business bankruptcies and the risk of recession.
The expectation is that in the coming months we will see a pick-up in activity and, combined with sensible decisions by central bankers, everything will be back on track. "soft launch" by the end of the year.
What happens next on June 19
In addition to the ceasefire and the opening of the Ormysl Stream, the document provides for a 60-day period of negotiations on Iran's nuclear program - a topic that markets will be watching closely, as a new flare-up around it could send prices back up.
By signed in Geneva this week, there are still delegation meetings ahead. How quickly fuel prices stabilize - and whether central banks pause interest rate hikes - will determine how long the truce lasts, especially in Lebanon.