If Russian President Vladimir Putin had made a clear assessment of the state of his war with Ukraine, he would be striving for a ceasefire. Instead, he is heading for a new escalation, and that could cost him a lot, says former Swedish Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Carl Bildt, quoted by Kyiv Independent and UNIAN.
His stubborn drive to seize all of Donbas, let alone subjugate all of Ukraine, could cost him a complete defeat in the war. His judgment is clearly clouded, as all signs point to him seeking some escalation. If he does go down this path, he will make the situation worse for everyone, but most of all for himself.
During his meeting with US President Donald Trump in Alaska, Putin tried to convince Washington to put pressure on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to not only agree to recognize the territories already occupied by Russia, but also to hand over the part of Donbas controlled by the Ukrainian armed forces.
Since it was not possible to force Ukraine to make these concessions, the negotiations reached a dead end, and now the Kremlin hopes to achieve its goals by military means. Putin believes that attacks on civilians and critical infrastructure can force Ukraine to submit. But while he undoubtedly causes great pain, aerial bombardment alone has never won a war.
Carl Bildt points out that the Russian army is stuck on the front line and is advancing extremely slowly. Meanwhile, Ukraine is stepping up its attacks deep into Russian territory, inflicting significant damage on the aggressor himself.
Crimea, not Donbas, has key symbolic significance for Putin. Bildt recalls that the annexation of the peninsula in 2014 dramatically increased Putin’s popularity in the country and ultimately paved the way for a full-scale invasion in 2022. The former Swedish prime minister argues that the original goal of the invasion – the military and political subjugation of all of Ukraine – is no longer achievable. He believes that the rational solution for the Kremlin would be to agree to a ceasefire now along the current lines.
If Putin continues on his current path, he is unlikely to get the small part of Donetsk Oblast that he wants, but he is very likely to lose control of Crimea.