The Kremlin is using the demonstrated readiness for negotiations with the US to seek economic concessions that will help Russia finance the continuation of the war in Ukraine. This is the assessment of the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Analysts see the meeting between the US special envoy Steve Witkoff and Russian President Vladimir Putin on October 21 as part of this tactic. Russian officials presented the conversation as a sign that Moscow was ready for meaningful talks to end the war, but at the same time emphasized the economic side of the contacts.
Kirill Dmitriev, Putin's special representative and director general of the Russian Direct Investment Fund, said that the two discussed expanding Russian-American economic cooperation and agreed to "continue communication."
A Russian official close to the Kremlin's domestic political bloc told the opposition media outlet "Vorstka" that Moscow does not expect the talks to resolve the conflict in Ukraine. According to him, Russian officials hope that economic concessions will increase budget revenues and provide the country with a military advantage.
Moscow shows no readiness for significant concessions
According to ISW, public signals from Moscow do not indicate a readiness for a serious compromise on the issue of ending the war. On October 22, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Putin did not hand over a Russian peace plan to Witkoff during their meeting. Peskov also said that the Russian president did not discuss the composition of a possible Russian delegation for future trilateral talks with Ukraine and the United States.
Russian lawmakers have expressed skepticism that the talks can end the war. They also reiterated the position that freezing the current front line would hinder Russian objectives.
A source close to the Russian Foreign Ministry told “Vorstka“ that the Kremlin has been trying to bring the Donald Trump administration to Russia's side for more than a year and a half.
“This resembles the Kremlin's previous negotiating tactics, which tried to convince the United States and the West in general that Ukrainian defenses would be destroyed and Ukraine should preemptively capitulate,“ the ISW said.Focus remains on the battlefield
According to the institute, the Kremlin's main interest is to gain time to develop military operations. The first deputy chairman of the Russian State Duma's defense committee, Alexei Zhuravlev, said on October 21 that Russia must "put pressure" on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on the battlefield and force Ukraine to "capitulate."
Putin's adviser, Yuri Ushakov, said that Russian troops retain "full strategic initiative" and are "continuously advancing" on all key sectors of the front.
What Moscow is proposing for new talks
On October 22, Putin said that Russia is ready to resume trilateral talks on Ukraine. According to him, the goal should be to achieve a final peace and conclude agreements on the future security of Russia and Ukraine, and not simply to cease hostilities.
Peskov pointed to Abu Dhabi as a possible location for the meeting. He specified that these were talks between the delegations of Russia, Ukraine and the United States, and not a meeting of the leaders of the three countries.
The Kremlin spokesman denied that Putin had conveyed to Witkoff proposals to end the war and refused to reveal details of their conversation. He indicated that the reason for this was that public discussion of the agreements could harm the negotiation process.
Sources: unian.net