The US is again trying to launch peace talks on the war between Russia and Ukraine, but Kiev does not expect a quick breakthrough. On October 20, President Donald Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff met in Vilnius with Volodymyr Zelensky and representatives of European countries to present American proposals for resolving the conflict.
After the talks, Zelensky said that Ukraine and the West have “clear ideas on how to achieve peace“. Among them is the organization of a trilateral meeting with the participation of Trump, Vladimir Putin and the Ukrainian president. According to him, such a meeting can resolve issues that are within the power of state leaders alone.
Finnish President Alexander Stubb, who also participated in the talks, said that "real progress has been achieved on two levels" - on short-term issues and in a broader context. Air defense, energy facilities and the possibility of a partial ceasefire were discussed.
Washington seeks framework for agreement
According to Axios, the participants focused on developing a framework agreement to end the war, which would subsequently be offered to Russia. Sources of the publication described the achievement as "significant progress" and "full mutual understanding at a working level" for the next steps.
At the meeting, US special envoy for peace Jared Kushner, who is Trump's son-in-law, again asked Ukraine to stop attacking Russian oil refineries. The next day, Witkoff left for St. Petersburg, where he met with Vladimir Putin. After the talks, Russian presidential aide Yuri Ushakov said that Moscow was ready to resume trilateral talks with the US in November.
“I don't know how close we are, but we are getting there“, Ushakov said in response to a question about whether the war was nearing an end.
Territories remain the main obstacle
In Kiev, the Vilnius meeting was received with little enthusiasm, a source close to the Ukrainian presidency told Meduza. The main problem, he said, is that Russia continues to insist on recognizing its control over Crimea and over Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia and Kherson regions, including territories that Russian forces do not control.
“For us, this does not change anything in any way, because we have a consensus: Ukraine does not surrender its territories“, the source said. He added that Kiev is ready for a ceasefire along the current line of contact if it receives security guarantees from the United States through a bilateral agreement similar in meaning to Article 5 of the NATO treaty. According to the same source, Putin does not want a freeze on hostilities along the front line.
On October 21, Zelensky told Fox News that he was ready to freeze hostilities along the current positions if negotiations were then held and Ukraine was provided with security guarantees. He was responding to a question about whether an agreement that would keep 75 percent or more of the country's territory under Kiev's control was possible.
Economic proposals and pressure on Kiev
In early October, Russia and the United States agreed to supply Russian diesel fuel to the American and global markets. In the middle of the month, The New York Times reported that the Trump administration had proposed to Ukrainian and European representatives, including Zelensky, to restore trade in Russian gas as part of negotiations to end the war. The idea was supported by Witkoff and Kushner.
The Meduza source declined to say how Kiev accepted the proposal.
In parallel with the diplomatic efforts, the Ukrainian military command reported communication problems with drones equipped with Starshield - a military analogue of the Starlink system. According to the Ukrainian military, the connection began to break at speeds above 160 kilometers per hour, which led to the failure of several operations.
Zelensky's adviser Serhiy Beskrestnov said that this "cannot be a coincidence" and is related to the political situation surrounding the relationship between the Ukrainian president and Trump. The Wall Street Journal described the relationship between the two as reaching its lowest point after their conflict in the Oval Office in early 2025.
According to a source for Meduza, Starlink in Ukraine begins to give problems at a speed of 120 kilometers per hour, and above 130 kilometers per hour "it no longer works", although such a speed is necessary to hit military targets.
In mid-October, Kiev also reported that Ukrainian forces had not received data from the US satellite system for early warning of ballistic missile launches during several Russian strikes. A source close to Zelensky's office confirmed to Meduza that for a certain period, Ukraine had not received intelligence on the launches of some of the Russian missiles. "Now we see everything again," he said.
Kiev is talking about a "soft form" of surrender
According to the same source, Trump's actions are aimed at putting pressure on Ukraine. Earlier, Western media claimed that the idea of limiting high-speed communication was proposed to Trump by SpaceX owner Elon Musk. Musk denied this.
A Meduza source close to the Ukrainian presidency believes that the US administration's policy is indirectly pushing Zelensky towards a "soft surrender".
„The Americans are preparing Kiev for the inevitable. Therefore, it is better to discuss not under what Ukrainian conditions the ceasefire will be, but how the surrender will take place with less losses for Ukraine - in exchange for some security guarantees. They are offering us investments, reconstruction... Where all this will lead is hard to say,“ the source said.Against the backdrop of renewed diplomatic efforts, Russia has stepped up its shelling of Ukraine, claims another Meduza source in Kiev. He said that in previously relatively calm areas such as Vinnytsia, Lviv and Lutsk, the intensity of attacks had increased tenfold, with 20-30 jet drones being launched daily. He said that Iskander cluster missiles had already been used in the center of Kiev.
On the night of October 22, after Witkoff left, Russian forces attacked Ukraine with ballistic missiles. One person was killed and more than 20 were injured in Kiev. Zelensky said that the attack showed the lack of "real changes" in Russia's attitude towards the war.
That same night, Ukraine carried out drone strikes on several Russian regions, including Moscow and the Moscow region. Two people were injured in the Novaya Moskva area.
Political scientists see limited chances for a breakthrough
According to a Meduza source, despite pressure from the US and the intensification of Russian attacks, Zelensky will try to get the most out of the most difficult situation to the last.
The head of the Ukrainian Center for Applied Political Research “Penta“ Vladimir Fesenko positively assesses the very fact that the negotiations have resumed. “Better bad negotiations with little chance of success than no negotiations“, he says.
Fesenko defines Russia's readiness to return to the trilateral format as a tactical move and a continuation of attempts to get closer to Trump. According to him, this does not yet mean that Moscow is actually discussing an end to the war.
„If the Trump administration uses the same method - constant preliminary concessions to Russia and attempts to persuade it to peace negotiations through new gifts, as Witkoff is doing, this is a hopeless strategy. Unfortunately, it will only stimulate the war“, says Fesenko.The main problem, according to the political scientist, is the lack of clear signs that Russia is actually ready to negotiate a cessation of hostilities. According to him, the Kremlin will not seriously engage in negotiations until Moscow decides that the war cannot be won.
Fesenko points out that Ukraine is experiencing a shortage of air defense systems, and Russia's advantage in ballistic missiles creates an advantage in the air war. According to him, Putin is counting on breaking Ukraine in the winter by striking at its energy and economic systems.
If Ukraine manages to survive the winter and at least partially reduce the imbalance in the air war, the chances of real negotiations will increase, Fesenko believes.
Moscow and Kiev have long accused each other of not wanting a real end to the war. Both sides insist that the conflict can only end on their terms. Putin has repeatedly stated that he is ready for negotiations after Ukrainian forces leave Donbas voluntarily or as a result of a military operation. Kiev, for its part, insists that the basis for a ceasefire should be a freeze of zones of control along the current front line.
Sources: meduza.io