Evgeniy Kanev: The news about the end of GERB is actually very bad

Political and economic processes in Bulgaria are commented on in "Mrezhata" on the "Hristo Botev" program by Evgeniy Kanev, economist.

"We have a rather dynamic geopolitical situation in the world, which has been changing dramatically, I would say, over the last few years since the pandemic. Bulgaria, as a whole, has always been sensitive to these changes. And in practice, politics here is a reflection of what is happening globally. When the Western line prevails, our oligarchy adapts to it and imitates a process of liberal democracy. When this line wavers and the Kremlin or pro-Russian forces take over, we adjust. This is no secret to anyone. I think that to a large extent our model of conjunctural development is formally European, but in practice it imitates the Russian model of oligarchy.

So what we call a facade is actually what is actually being commented on. And that is why people are largely misled. But the truth is that behind this facade are the same players who have been standing for years, who, given the current conjuncture, have decided that there is nothing more to hide. They just want to take power with their own faces and rule the country."

GERB only makes sense as long as it can be a face in Europe

"You know that with the return of the Tsar to Bulgaria, the old interests of people connected to the former communist circles and State Security, whose political offspring are the people who currently rule Bulgaria, actually came to power.

You know that Boyko Borisov came in as the Secretary General of the Ministry of Internal Affairs at the same time that the NMSV was in power, and you know that Delyan Peevski was the chairman of the NMSV youth organization. They were simply nurtured by this connection as people who could take on such a role.

At one point, Borisov turned out to be a person who could rule, control the media, gain popularity, be liked on stage, not so much to bring qualitative changes in the environment of Bulgaria as a European country. From this point of view, he was very strongly supported by various circles. I'm not saying that at times he didn't believe that he was God's chosen one, almost, and that he should rule the country, but that's when the hidden forces that are really behind him come into play, reminding him who he is and that he is being controlled.

Remember the case with "Alo, Vanyo", when he was at the peak of his power, then other records. Records about Borisov always come out when he clearly hasn't fulfilled some promise or has deviated from his set line. But in my opinion, the most obvious fact about this control was the election of Radev. Then Borisov brought out a person who could in no way compete with Radev."

In practice, Borisov and GERB are the most successful project of the transition

"Precisely because they managed to displace and replace the authentic democratic forces, the UDF, and then the DSB. And in practice, they took the center in the right space, acceptable to the EU. Because we know that our left-wing force, the Bulgarian Communist Party or the Bulgarian Socialist Party, is connected to Russia and could not possibly be allowed to manage EU funds. EU funds are the key to Borisov's success. Remember that in 2009, when he was first elected, Stanishev's EU funds were stopped. Then they stopped them when they tried to replace Borisov. In 2014 - again. And it turned out that only Borisov managed to receive these EU funds. Here, in my opinion, is the formula for his longevity."

If Mr. Peevski enters government legitimately, what will happen to the financing of the state?

"Regarding the funds from the Recovery and Resilience Plan, they may no longer be relied upon, since the most key conditions for receiving them are not met, namely: an operating, working judicial system and an Anti-Corruption Commission. And this cannot happen while the "Magnitsky" awardee is actually in power.

But this explains very clearly why Mr. Peevski was "driven" into the eurozone. Because entering the eurozone changes the entire way Bulgaria's economy is financed. We will no longer have a currency board, which was a very restrictive condition for banks to finance. They will be refinanced by Europe. It will be much easier to obtain loans. In practice, to a large extent the problem with EU funds will be solved through EU financing directly from the European Central Bank itself."

Why does Peevski want to come to power

"When he is already officially in power, he can represent Bulgaria. And as such, he can actually meet with key figures from the countries where he is sanctioned under "Magnitsky". And accordingly, offer Bulgaria's services in exchange for his release. Because they are currently trying many ways to get him released from "Magnitsky", but they are not working. Neither through indirect lobbying, nor through law firms, nor through effective projects. It doesn't work and it won't work.

And Mr. Peevski has a huge problem with "Magnitsky", because outside of Bulgaria he is practically nobody. He can't pay even five leva if he doesn't take it out of his wallet personally. He has devoted all his efforts to getting out of "Magnitsky". This is the reason he needs all the power in order to institutionally resolve the issue. That is, to make it a Bulgarian issue, not his personal problem.

He can be a deputy prime minister and as such, travel the world, represent Bulgaria. And why not be a prime minister? In practice, there is no problem at all with being elected even as prime minister."

Russian model of oligarchy

"To a large extent, Bulgaria's wealth was given to people close to power. And this was a long process, not a one-time act. It started with Lukanov's briefcases, which were given to certain people. Then private banks, again to certain people. Then the credit millionaires, you remember, participated in privatization, where the same people took the most interesting objects. Substitutes, European funds, RES projects - many phases during which wealth is concentrated in a few families. And these families control this wealth through power. Without power, they cannot exist. Almost none of them sell a product that they themselves created and implemented on the free market. Their strength comes from the fact that they receive public procurement, construction, excise goods, fuel, and so on through the state. This is similar to the Russian model.

The other similarity is that, apart from one or two parties, all the others are projects with one leader-chief. This is an absolutely abnormal way to create a political project. It is related to the choice of a popular figure who is first promoted. In practice, there are almost no authentic parties. These are parties created to serve. That is why there is no change. Because there are not 121 deputies who actually want change."

The news about the end of GERB is actually very bad

"GERB, despite all its weaknesses, was still an official party that in many cases acted pro-European. It has MEPs, it has support from the European People's Party. To some extent, he was a guarantor of Bulgaria's course towards European integration. Although he managed to do almost nothing in 20 years in power. But GERB, although it defended the interests of the oligarchy, still did not allow Bulgaria to have Orban or Vucic.

From this point of view, with its minuses, the very fact that GERB was a large party, supported at the state level and by the "deep state" that stands behind them now, when we see that the state is retreating from GERB, this is for me a sign that a course is being adopted that is lateral to Europe. Different from Europe. And this is the scariest thing. Because Bulgaria is actually taking the path not so much of Hungary as of Serbia, and God forbid, it is not Belarus.

This is the feeling that politics is no longer a matter of ideas, of vision, of direction, but of formulas, of compounds that are mixed to produce power. And that's the scary thing.

Because when there is no ideology, there is no responsibility. There is no direction. And then it all comes down to who will ally with whom to stay in power, and not what he will do for the people, for the country, for the future.

That's why I say that we are in a dangerous moment. Because if Peevski becomes the face of power, it will mean that Bulgaria no longer needs a European facade. That the oligarchy has decided that it can govern directly, without intermediaries, without translations, without masks. This is a new phase in which the facade is no longer needed. In which control is open and in which, unfortunately, Bulgaria can become something very different from what people imagine when they say "European state".

The big question is how Peevski will solve the issue of financing his state."