Protests, counter-protests, demands for resignation... And somehow it all started with dissatisfaction with the budget. Where are we going... Svetlin Tachev, a political scientist from “Myara“, spoke to FAKTI.
- Mr. Tachev, how did some protests against the budget turn against the government. What degenerated in this situation?
- The budget was only an occasion, but not the main goal. Under the surface, it is clear that there is tension that is building up due to the constant scandals in which the government is involved, including around the adoption of the budget. So the budget was just the spark that brought people to the streets. However, I did not expect that it could provoke such large-scale protests. In normal political conditions, I suppose, the budget would not have received so much attention, because usually the reasons for anti-government mobilizations over the past ten years have always been much more significant - both in 2013 and in 2020.
- Was there a feeling that the government considered itself untouchable because it proposed the “only” possible budget. To reach perhaps the largest protest in the last 30 years in Sofia. What does this mean? Only dissatisfaction or did something else make people take to the streets?
- The government has the comfort of governing as much and as little as it wants - without taking into account the opposition, which is fragmented and disunited. However, this creates the opportunity to make mistakes and provoke scandals. The way in which the attempt to pass the budget was made is indicative. Sensitivity is being lost in the ruling party. On the other hand, sensitivity in society is being strengthened. That is why I have been arguing for a long time that 2025 resembles 2018 - many fragmented protests on specific cases and a series of government scandals and mistakes that accumulate dissatisfaction. 2020 has channeled it to escalate into a large-scale anti-government protest mobilization.
- To get to your research on “Measure“, which showed that the protests have 71% support…
- The protest is recognizable and is perceived by society. It seems that it has become supra-partisan and is recognized by various social groups. Our research has shown that the expectation of resignation and early elections is becoming increasingly heavy, even though Bulgarians do not have the same conviction as in their support for the protests. At the beginning of this government's mandate, there was a credit of tolerance - probably due to the accumulated fatigue from the series of early elections. Then, however, a process of erosion began. All of this seems to me to confirm my analysis of the political situation in Bulgaria.
- If we have 71% voter turnout, what will happen?
- It is difficult to achieve something like this at this stage in Bulgaria. And in general, such a high voter turnout is typical of countries in transition or with strong political polarization in society. For example, Bulgaria in the first half of the 1990s. This is a moment when citizens determine the path of their country in the future. Since then, voter turnout has been decreasing - with some exceptions. It used to increase when a new major political entity appeared. This was the case in 2001 and 2009. Even in April 2021, despite the coronavirus, voter turnout was at a relatively good level. Although it did not exceed that of 2017.
- Now we hear the government's motive that it will not withdraw because of the eurozone. Is this a solid argument?
- It is a legitimate argument, but it is not certain whether it is already accepted. You see that other sentiments are emerging in society. We are going through a transitional period and stability is necessary to get the country through without major upheavals. Especially since we are entering the winter months, which are nerve-wracking for any government.
The accumulation of social problems can escalate. That is why the budget was turned into a tool for buying time – more social spending to avoid social discontent.
The government is also playing for history. Entering the eurozone will be recorded as a success. And just steps away from the finale, a large-scale discontent erupts, demanding their resignation. That is why it seems to me that the government will do everything possible to maintain itself until our official entry into the eurozone.
- And if until recently Borisov and Peevski were talking about a stable cabinet, President Rumen Radev has again called for a referendum on the euro. What kind of move is this?
- The topic of the euro is over. Entering the eurozone is a matter of days. However, the decision of the Constitutional Court is a signal that a violation has been committed. And this is an opportunity to put pressure on the government, especially if there are even minimal problems after the beginning of 2026.
- Can Rumen Radev afford to participate in early elections in April or May… He openly said that he made a political project when it was least expected...
- A lot depends on how the protests will develop. If they do not turn out to be just a momentary outburst of discontent, but a new large-scale mobilization, they have a chance to shift the political layers in the country. Following the example of 2020. At such a moment, Rumen Radev will have the opportunity to enter the political scene, if he decides to do so, of course.
- The people's dissatisfaction is there, the opposition has raised its voice, the president wants a change in the model… Many things come together in one place at the same time, but what can this lead to…
- This is the snowball effect that is gaining strength. The different oppositions are synchronizing in a common goal, albeit from different positions. They are simply too different, and the situation is not the same as in 2020, when everyone was together in the square. However, in practice, the entire opposition is already demanding the resignation of the government. The president has also demanded it, which is putting additional pressure on him. We will see how long the government itself will withstand the pressure.
- Who benefits from quick elections and who benefits from elections that are separated (distant) in time?
- At this stage, probably not for anyone, because they would give Rumen Radev a chance to enter the political scene if he decides to do so. For the opposition, this could be a loss of electorate. For the parties in power, there is no interest either - postponing the president's resignation is an opportunity to stem a possible major wave. The government is also playing for history, I repeat. Smaller parties can get disastrous results.
The format in which it supports is advantageous for DPS-New Beginning, since it dominates the government without being formally part of the coalition.
It seems that for Boyko Borisov it is most advantageous to have early elections, but he would not bear the burden. There is tension between GERB and “DPS-New Beginning“ and this is uncomfortable for him.
This is not the same Borisov who could dismiss ministers with a swing.
He announced a reformatting of the cabinet, but nothing substantial came of it. That is why it seems to me that he sometimes distances himself from the government itself. However, he also plays very hard for history. He couldn't be the prime minister who brings Bulgaria into the eurozone, but he will at least be the leader of the leading party in the coalition.
- A protest about the budget, fine. But did the opposition expect so many people on the streets?
- It seems to me that both the mass and the goal exceeded the PP-DB's expectations. First they announced that the protest was only about the budget, then they demanded the resignation of the Minister of the Interior, and finally they announced their resignation and elections. In this case, the protest dictated the goals that the coalition had to follow, although it seems that it did so with slight reluctance due to its major differences with the other opposition formations.
- A protest in Sofia – big, expected. But non-stop protests every night in different cities of the country… What is that?
- They are also a symptom. Since 2013, apart from the February protests of the same year, no other protest has been so massive outside Sofia.
I was impressed that it did not just leave the capital, but in some places continued after December 1.
Then smaller settlements also joined in. And this clearly shows that there is accumulated dissatisfaction throughout the country. However, daily protesting also has a negative side - it can quickly waste energy and lead to the protests subsiding. That is why Sofia is apparently saving energy for periodic mass demonstrations.
- Borisov knows how to resign, and has Zhelyazkov learned...
- The scale of the protest respects the government and this forced concessions - the budget was withdrawn. That is why Prime Minister Rosen Zhelyazkov made an attempt to show that he rather understands the protest and wants to return the dialogue to relieve the tension. However, this did not work in both 2013 and 2020.
- BSP and ITN, who were going to support Borisov, where are they…
- Regarding BSP and ITN.
Both formations are in a survival situation.
The left was the main opposition force for a whole decade, but because of its heritage it had difficulty being perceived as part of the parties of change. In the end, it still succeeded, but temporarily. ITN, thanks to the 2020 protests, got the opportunity to become the first political force. Now both are in government and it seems that they have the least interest in early elections, because the negatives will outweigh the positives for them. It is not out of the question that one of them will never pass the barrier to enter the National Assembly.